3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Thursday 5/16/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Nikola Jokic Over 21.5 Reb + Ast (+106)

After scoring a combined 75 points across his last two games, let's look for Nikola Jokic to take on more of a facilitator role in Game 6 of this Minnesota Timberwolves versus Denver Nuggets series.

Jokic averaged 21.4 combined rebounds and assists (RA) in the regular season and has been averaging 22.8 RA in the postseason. We can find a direct correlation between Jokic's shot volume and his RA numbers.

In eight playoff games where Jokic took 23 field goal attempts (FGA) or fewer, he averaged a whopping 24.6 RA. But in the other two playoff games where he took more than 23 FGA, he averaged just 15.5 RA.

Jokic has cleared 21.5 RA in six out of six playoff games wherein he took 21 FGA or fewer, and I think there's reason to believe he could hover around that shot volume tonight.

Going into the night, he has shot more than 21 FGA in back-to-back games. In his 78-game postseason career, Jokic has never shot more than 21 FGA in three straight games of a given series. Further, he has taken more than 21 FGA in three consecutive playoff games on just one occasion (2020-2021 playoffs).

Based on this long 78-game sample, we can see how rare it is for Jokic to have three-game stretches of a hefty shot volume.

Not only do I expect him to continue the trend of transforming from a big scorer to a big playmaker, but I also anticipate Minnesota, who faces elimination, to make good on their season-long league-best defensive rating. Rudy Gobert, this season's Defensive Player of the Year, has received plenty of guff for his defensive shortcomings against Jokic, but I think we could see his best playoff campaign to date in this game.

It doesn't hurt that Jamal Murray is coming off a contest where he took just 14 FGA (and zero three-point attempts) after averaging 24.0 FGA in the first round and 17.5 FGA in this series. Look for him, as well as Michael Porter Jr., who has managed only 10 total points across his last two games, to return to their roles on the scoring end.

Jokic is averaging 22.2 rebounds chances and 15.2 potential assists in the playoffs. Add in that six-out-of-six hit rate in games where he has shot 21 FGA or fewer, and I think targeting these plus odds could be worthwhile.

Michael Porter Jr. To Score 15+ Points (+115)

Something's gotta give with MPJ.

After averaging 22.8 points in the first round and scoring 19-plus points in six straight playoff games, Porter has become a non-factor for two straight games.

In Game 5, Porter's scoring was limited after going 2-for-10 from the field. And in Game 4, Porter failed to drain a three-pointer for the first time since January 25th of this year.

While low-scoring nights have been the reality for Porter this week, it is not the standard, so I think it's apt to target him in this buy-low spot.

Porter has scored at least 19 points in 7 out of 10 playoff games.

Further, in regular season and playoff games where he has logged at least 30 minutes, he is averaging 18.4 points and scored at least 15 points at a 68.7% rate. It's easy to have interest in these +115 odds, which imply just a 46.5% probability.

Porter, who shoots threes at a 39.7% accuracy, has cleared this prop in every postseason game wherein he shot above 28.6% from downtown. He's also scored at least 19 points in seven out of eight postseason games where he shot above 33.3% from the field, while he owns a 48.4% FG% on the season.

We're not asking for much; we just can't have MPJ come out with another ultra-poor shooting performance.

Aaron Gordon has scored a combined 45 points across his last two games, so look for him and Jokic to come back down to earth and draw major attention from Minnesota's D.

I also like how this prop correlates with the aforementioned Jokic pick. In the six playoff games where Jokic mustered over 21.5 RA, Porter averaged 20.8 points.

Anthony Edwards First Quarter Points Leader (+200)

With Minnesota's season at large, let's look for Anthony Edwards to come out striking in the first quarter.

Edwards has been the only player in this series to play a full 12-minute quarter in each contest, though Jokic is right behind him, averaging 11.9 minutes.

As expected, Jokic (+120 odds) is his main competition in this market, while Karl-Anthony Towns (+650) owns the next-shortest odds behind these two.

Jokic is scoring 8.2 points in the first quarter of this series, and Edwards is netting 8.0 points in this split. The Ant-Man has come out on top in this market in two out of five games, scoring 16 and 11 first-quarter points.

Both of these first-quarter outbursts came at key moments. The first was in Game 1, a set-the-tone and get-out-ahead performance from Ant, while the second came in Game 4, serving as a response to Denver's blowout victory in Game 3.

Following a lackluster outing in Game 5 that included 5-for-15 shooting and just 18 points, we should expect Edwards to come out swinging at home.

Not only are the T-Wolves favored to win the first quarter (-138 odds), but Denver has been surrendering more 3PA (8.6 per game) than Minnesota (6.6 per game) in the first quarter of this round.

Edwards is averaging a series-leading 2.4 3PA in the first quarter (next-most is Towns at 1.6 3PA). Perhaps he and Minnesota recognize that they are 2-1 -- and the one loss was by the closest margin in this series -- in the three games where Ant shot more than 15 FGA.

His odds to come out as the top points scorer of this game stand at +110, while he and Jokic both have their point lines set at 29.5.

Since Minnesota needs to come out firing, and Jokic could see a dip in his shot volume, I think backing the +200 odds here is a solid place to take a swing.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.