3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Thursday 3/7/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Thursday 3/7/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Duncan Robinson Over 18.5 Pts + Ast (+100)

The Miami Heat are scoring the fourth-fewest points per game, but a date with the Dallas Mavericks, a team that is surrendering the seventh-most points per game, could allow the Heat to put a big number on the scoreboard.

Look for Duncan Robinson to get in on the fun, especially since Tyler Herro (knee) is sitting this one out.

Robinson is averaging 19.8 combined points and assists (PA) in 22 games without Herro. In this split, Robinson is surpassing 18.5 PA at a 59.1% clip, which shows there is value in these even-money odds.

Herro's absence moves Robinson into Miami's starting lineup, and as a starter, Robinson is accumulating 20.3 PA per game.

Best known for his three-point shooting, Robinson nets 63.1% of his points from behind the arc and shoots the three-ball at a 40.6% clip.

This proficiency should hold up against Dallas. The Mavs let up the ninth-most three-point makes (3PM) per game, and across their last 10 games, they've surrendered the third-most 3PM in the NBA.

While Robinson seems primed to get going from downtown, I think it's apt to target his PA prop in lieu of his three-point prop. Dallas surrenders the third-most points and the fourth-most assists to shooting guards, which is quite intriguing considering Robinson plays 32.4 minutes when he's in the starting lineup.

This matchup is a major pace-up game for Miami. The Heat play at the league's third-slowest pace, while the Mavericks play at the eighth-fastest pace.

In nine games wherein Robinson has played without Herro and against a team that ranked in the top 15 of pace, he is averaging 20.0 PA. If we adjust this split to also account for teams that rank in the bottom 10 of defensive rating -- Dallas has the eighth-worst defensive rating -- Robinson is averaging 21.3 PA.

FanDuel Research's projections, which are powered by numberFire, also have faith in Robinson. They project his PA line to end up at an even 20.0 tonight.

Draymond Green Over 19.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-115)

Yesterday, we targeted the over on Draymond Green's PR prop, and he rewarded us with an 18.0 PR night.

I don't think it would be beating a dead horse to target Green once again. The market has been giving us a great deal when it comes to Green, so let's run it back, this time looking at his combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) prop.

On the season, Green is averaging 21.9 PRA. He has exceeded 19.5 PRA in 72.97% of his games, showing stark value in these -115 odds, which imply just a 53.49% probability.

But if we only account for games where Green has played at least 20 minutes, he is clearing 19.5 PRA at a towering 84.4% clip. He's averaging 26.2 minutes per game and is projected to play 29.17 minutes tonight.

He and the Golden State Warriors will host the Chicago Bulls in what will be the second leg of a back-to-back for the Warriors.

I don't think this should cause concern. Golden State won last night's games by 35 points, so Green and the other Golden State starters didn't play much in the second half. Plus, Green is averaging 21.4 PRA in the second leg of a back-to-back, recording a minimum of 19.0 PRA in this seven-game sample.

The Bulls give up the second-most rebounds to power forwards. Further, Chicago is allowing the most 3PM in the league, which should bolster Green's assist production. The Green-to-Stephen Curry connection is powerful, and I expect that to be alive and well in a friendly three-point matchup.

Our projections think Green will record 21.8 PRA this evening.

Jaden McDaniels Over 14.5 Pts + Reb (-118)

Karl-Anthony Towns (meniscus) is one of the biggest names on today's injury report, so let's look for Jaden McDaniels to step up for the Minnesota Timberwolves.

McDaniels has played in a pair of games without Towns. He averaged 16.0 PR in this span, recording 25.0 PR in one contest and 7.0 PR in the other. The discrepancy here is concerning, but I have faith that the cards will fall in McDaniels' favor tonight.

For starters, McDaniels shot at a 20.0% clip from the field in that 7.0 PR performance, while he's shooting at a 50.5% clip on the season. Plus, McDaniels played just 26 minutes in this game, while our projections have him playing 33.02 minutes tonight.

But more importantly, the T-Wolves will take on the Indiana Pacers, a team that plays at the NBA's second-fastest pace and gives up the second-most (tied) points per game.

Minnesota is playing at the seventh-slowest pace, so they will likely be forced to speed things up in this one. There should be more stats to go around for Minnesota in this environment, and since the absent Towns is averaging 30.5 PR, McDaniels could have himself a night.

Indiana is allowing the second-most points and the third-most rebounds to power forwards. Our projections are quite bullish on this over, as they anticipate McDaniels to end up with 17.4 PR.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.