3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Thursday 11/16/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
NBA Prop Bets
Jaime Jaquez Jr. To Score 10+ Points (+115)
On the season, he is averaging 9.1 points per game on 22.9 minutes, but Tyler Herro has been out for Miami for the last three games -- in this span, Jaquez is averaging 16.0 points on 34.3 minutes.
Herro remains out, so I'm expecting somewhat similar court time and production for Jaquez, and we'll only need him to score 10.
Jaquez has scored 10-plus points in four straight games. Tonight he will go up against the Brooklyn Nets, a team that allows the 11th-most points to forwards per 36 minutes.
The Nets also allow the second-most three-point attempts (3PA) to forwards per 36 minutes. Jaquez is scoring 27.0% of his points from downtown and his ability to shoot an extra three-ball or two means a lot for this prop.
Jaquez has the second-best defensive rating among all Heat players since taking on a larger role without Herro. This effort and production should allow him to stay on the court for extended time tonight, especially in a game that is expected to be close (3.5-point spread).
numberFire's model projects Jaquez to score 12.5 points tonight, so I'm happy to get him at plus odds to score at least 10.
Mikal Bridges Over 4.5 Rebounds (-132)
Mikal Bridges probably isn't the first name that pops into one's head when talking about grabbing boards, but he's been rebounding the ball a lot lately.
Coming into the night, Bridges is averaging 6.2 rebounds per game. He's cleared this prop in 9 out of 11 games, including his last six straight.
Up until that point, Simmons had been a bit of a boards hog (10.8 rebounds per game), and Bridges' team-leading 34.4 minutes per game has allowed him to pick up the slack here.
The Heat should be a decent matchup for this prop, too. Miami allows the 10th-most rebounds overall and the 9th-most to forwards per 36 minutes.
This led to Bridges recording 7 rebounds against Miami a couple of weeks ago even with Simmons earning a team-high 11 rebounds.
Klay Thompson Over 21.5 Points (-108)
The Golden State Warriors were without Stephen Curry on Tuesday, a game in which Klay Thompson could have leveraged the extra responsibility and opportunity to break into the 20-point range for the first time this season. Instead, Thompson got ejected mere minutes into the game and now will go back out tonight with an even thinner Golden State roster.
Barring any premature exits, I expect Thompson to reach the 20-plus points range tonight.
Last season, Thompson played in twenty games without Curry and averaged 26.4 points per game during this span (which was quite higher than his regular season 21.9 points average).
He played in four games without both Curry and Green last season, resulting in a 27.0-point average for the lesser of the Splash Brothers.
These numbers indicate the type of output we've seen in the past from Thompson on a short-staffed team, and his history against the opposing Oklahoma City Thunder is even more encouraging.
Thompson eviscerated OKC in three matchups last season. He averaged 31.0 points with the breakdown of his performances being 23, 42, and 28 points.
Oklahoma City is allowing the 5th-most FTA and the 11th-most 3PA to guards per 36 minutes this season. Thompson is scoring 57.8% of his points from behind the arc and the free-throw line and scored 67.5% of his points from here last year.
Further, the Thunder give up the fifth-most FGA from the mid-range and the second-most when 20-24 feet from the hoop. Thompson leads all Golden State players in FGA from mid-range and is second, only to Curry, in FGA from 20-24 feet away.
The opportunity and matchup couldn't be better, and Thompson is primed to have a comeback after a disappointing start to his season. I'd even check out Klay Thompson To Score 25+ Points (+170).
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.