3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Monday 5/6/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Myles Turner Over 24.5 Pts + Reb (-111)

The Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks will play Game 1 of what should be an exciting Eastern Conference Semifinals matchup this evening, and I'm looking at Myles Turner to have a big game.

Turner averaged 26.4 combined points and rebounds (PR) in the first round and exceeded 24.5 PR in four out of six games.

He averaged a whopping 32.5 PR across the four games in which he played at least 32 minutes, while FanDuel Research's projections have him slated to log 34.02 minutes tonight.

There are a few reasons why I like Turner in this matchup.

The Knicks have been riding with a very small lineup during these playoffs, both in size and depth. Isaiah Hartenstein and Mitchell Robinson will have to be further utilized in this series against bigs such as Turner and Pascal Siakam. Robinson struggles with one of the worst defensive ratings in the league and the lowest rating on the Knicks.

Among all playoff teams, New York has let up the third-most three-point attempts (3PA) and three-point makes (3PM) per game during the postseason.

Turner has gone 18-for-41 from behind the arc during these playoffs and should see plenty of good looks against a small and three-point-sacrificing team.

In two regular season games where Turner played at least 30 minutes against the Knicks, he went for 31 PR and 36 PR. Our projections forecast 27.1 PR for him in Game 1, so I'm happy to back him.

Aaron Gordon Over 12.5 Points (-102)

This is about as low as we'll find Aaron Gordon's points prop, and I see every reason to take advantage of this bounce-back spot.

Gordon averaged 13.9 points in the regular season. He scored over 12.5 points in 32 out of 41 contests where he played at least 32 minutes.

These -102 odds imply just a 50.5% probability, but he cleared this prop at a 78.0% rate in the 32-plus-minute split, and our projections expect him to play 37.71 minutes in Game 1 against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The Denver Nuggets need Gordon to come alive as they look to even up this series. Gordon is averaging 15.5 points in Denver's four playoff wins, while he's averaging just 8.0 points across their two postseason losses.

Minnesota owns the league's best defense and both teams have plenty of size. The interior should continue to be the focus of this series, and Gordon needs to get in on the action, as he nets 68.5% of his points in the paint.

For what it's worth, he scored over 12.5 points in four out of five playoff games against Minnesota last season, missing by the hook on one occasion.

Our projections expect Gordon to score 15.6 points this evening. I love him in this buy-low spot and would also take a look at Gordon To Score 15+ Points (+175).

Nikola Jokic Over 21.5 Reb + Ast (-111)

Nikola Jokic averaged a towering 26.0 combined rebound and assists (RA) in round one and exceeded 21.5 RA in four out of five games.

This type of play is nothing new for the Joker. He managed a 23.0 RA average across 20 postseason games last year and should hover around that number tonight.

Game 1 of this series saw an uncharacteristic performance from Jokic. He took 25 field goal attempts (FGA) despite averaging just 17.9 FGA in the regular season and 18.6 FGA in round one.

He also shot just 44.0% from the field in Game 1, while he owns a 58.3% shooting percentage on the season.

We know Jokic as someone who takes a moderate number of shots for someone of his stature, but the T-Wolves forced him into brutal shot selections in Denver's loss this past Saturday.

The Nuggets risk handing Minnesota a 2-0 series lead, on their home court no less, so let's look for Jokic and Denver to go back to their winning plays this evening.

I'd expect Jokic to prioritize rebounding and playmaking in this matchup. We know he's capable of fighting with the best of them on the boards, and he made some telling postgame comments following Game 1 that suggest he's looking for the other bigs on Denver to step up in this series.

Look for players like Gordon to make the grade in the points column, which in turn could allow Jokic to rack up RA and avoid falling into less-than-desirable shot selections.

Our projections have him slated to record 24.7 RA in this one.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.