3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Monday 5/13/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Monday 5/13/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Darius Garland Over 21.5 Pts + Ast (-102)

The Cleveland Cavaliers will attempt to even things up with the Boston Celtics in Game 4, and from a betting perspective, perhaps we should be honed in on Darius Garland.

Garland averaged 24.5 combined points and assists (PA) in the regular season.

In games where he has played at least 30 minutes, he's netting 26.1 PA per contest. He eclipsed 21.5 PA in 78.4% of games in this split (40 out of 51 contests), while these -102 odds imply just a 50.5% probability.

FanDuel Research's projections expect Garland to log 34.92 minutes tonight, so the 30-plus-minute hit rate on this prop in comparison to the implied probability seems quite enticing.

The value may look awesome, but Garland has averaged only 19.3 PA in this series. However, with a clear path to positive regression, I like his chances to turn things around tonight.

Boston lets up a ton of three-pointers. They surrendered the eighth-most three-point attempts (3PA; 36.7 per game) in the regular season and have continued that trend in the playoffs, allowing Cleveland to shoot 35.3 3PA per game.

Garland has been getting in on these shot attempts (6.3 3PA per game), but he's shot 25.0% or below from downtown in two out of three of these games despite owning a 37.1% 3P% on the season.

In the one game where Garland shot above 25.0% from behind the arc, he was limited to just eight field goal attempts and eight assist opportunities in Cleveland's resounding 24-point victory.

He averaged 27.3 PA in three games against the Celtics during the regular season and should start to see those type of numbers against the team that let up the fifth-most points and sixth-most assists per game to guards this year.

I should note that Donovan Mitchell (calf) was not present at today's morning shootaround. While it'd be a bit surprising to see him sit this one out, Garland's stock skyrockets if Mitchell isn't able to shake the questionable designation. He exceeded 21.5 PA in 16 out of 18 30-plus-minute games without Mitchell this season.

But even with accounting for Mitchell on the court, our projections still have Garland set to record 23.1 PA in Game 4.

Chet Holmgren Over 23.5 Pts + Reb (-113)

As the Oklahoma City Thunder risk handing the Dallas Mavericks a 3-1 series lead, let's look for Chet Holmgren to perform in a bounce-back spot.

Holmgren averaged 24.4 combined points and rebounds (PR) in the regular season, which is identical to his PR average in OKC's playoff wins.

He's cleared 23.5 PR in four out of five playoff wins but hasn't passed this number in either of their last two losses. Holmgren has gone 9-for-21 from the field (42.8% FG%) during this two-game losing streak, while he shot the ball at a 53.0% clip this season.

He's integral to the Thunder's success and has an opportunity to see positive regression in those shooting numbers, so I'm happy to back him in a buy-low spot.

In games where he has played at least 30 minutes, he is averaging 26.8 PR. He's eclipsed 23.5 PR at a 68.6% rate in this 51-game split, but these -113 odds suggest just a 53.1% probability.

Dallas has played their best defense of the season across their last two games, but it's no guarantee that this sticks for the duration of this series, and the Thunder seem primed to strike back in Game 4.

Our projections expect Holmgren to accumulate 25.6 PR this evening.

Kyrie Irving Over 22.5 Points (+100)

This prop passes the eyeball test. Kyrie Irving averaged 25.6 points per game in the regular season and has been netting 23.3 points per postseason game.

In 56 games where he has played at least 30 minutes, he is averaging 26.1 points and surpassed 22.5 points at a 71.4% rate, so it's easy to see the value in these even-money odds.

We are finding Irving in a buy-low spot due to his low scoring production in this series, but he's actually been playing great basketball, and I believe there is a viable solution to get him above the hump tonight.

In Game 2, he shot just eight field goal attempts while PJ Washington and Tim Hardaway Jr. combined for 46 points. Washington has been on fire in this series, but there are few worlds where Irving is able to take this much of an offensive backseat again.

He scored 20 and 22 points in Games 1 and 3, respectively, but these numbers have been watered down due to a 4.0 3PA per game average. In the regular season, Irving took 7.3 3PA per game, while he shot 8.3 3PA per game in the first round.

He's due for an outburst from downtown and should see a spike in his shot volume from that area. Further, Irving did not attempt any free throws in Game 3 despite playing 41 minutes and shooting 17 FGA.

Irving routinely exceeded 22.5 points in both the regular season and the first round of the playoffs. Give him an average amount of looks from downtown and a few freebies at the foul line, and I'd expect him to clear that number tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.