3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Monday 12/4/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
NBA Prop Bets
Sam Hauser Over 9.5 Points (+106)
The Knockout Rounds of the NBA In-Season Tournament kick off tonight. The Boston Celtics have a 125.5 implied team total against the Indiana Pacers, which, as you could probably guess, is a slate-high team total.
This, and the fact that starting forward Kristaps Porzingis (calf) is out tonight, should allow the wealth to be shared among Boston players and constitute high individual point totals.
But regardless of where this final score ends up, I think Sam Hauser is in for a 10-plus point performance. Hauser is averaging 9.7 points per game but has cleared this prop in 11 of his last 14 games.
No team in the league gives up more points than Indiana (125.9), including to forwards per 36 minutes.
Hauser scores a vast majority of his points from behind the arc (84.3%), and the Pacers, despite their status as the most point-sacrificing team in the league, give up the least number of three-point attempts (3PA) per game. But Hauser-backers should not fret.
The Celtics, who tout a league-best record and hammered this Pacers team by an unreal 51 points earlier this season, should rule the pace of this game and play on their own terms. These terms include making it rain from downtown. Boston ranks second in the league in 3PA per game.
And while the Pacers typically don't cede many 3PA, they are allowing these shots to be drained at a higher percentage (40.0% 3P%) than any other team in the league. This should pair nicely with Hauser's 43.7% 3P%. Plus, he's averaging 6.3 3PA per game and 7.7 3PA since Porzingis has been out of the lineup.
Hauser scored 17 points against Indiana in their November matchup -- getting this at plus odds feels like a luxury.
Zion Williamson Over 35.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-106)
Over in the Western Conference, the New Orleans Pelicans will go up against the Sacramento Kings as they vie for a spot in the semifinals of the In-Season Tournament. With each team only three wins away from the $500,000 per player prize money, we should expect playoff-like intensity and minutes from the stars in this game. I think Zion Williamson's stat sheet will benefit most from this sentiment.
Williamson is averaging only 34.2 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) this season, but there's plenty of evidence to prove he could be primed for 36-plus PRA tonight.
Over his last eight games, he is averaging 36.4 PRA. This span includes a dud 26-minute, 23 PRA performance against the San Antonio Spurs. Under normal circumstances, it wouldn't be fair to categorize this game as an outlier. But given what's on the line tonight, and the fact that numberFire is projecting Williamson to see 35.59 minutes on the court against the Kings, it is apt to remove this low-minute game. This brings his PRA average over his last seven up to 38.3
Per 36 minutes, which is a tick below where numberFire projects Williamson's minute total tonight, he is averaging 39.1 PRA. In games this season where he has played 33-plus minutes, he is averaging 38.7 PRA.
Not only is his usage potential encouraging, but so is this matchup. The Kings let up the 10th-most points, 14th-most rebounds, and fifth-most assists to forwards per 36 minutes.
Williamson scores 77.2% of his points in the paint. The Kings allow the 11th-most points in the paint per game and have been allowing the fifth-most over their last two games. Sacramento also lets up the seventh-most putback points per possession, and Williamson ranks 10th (tied) in the league in putback points per game.
He's gone up against the Kings twice this season, clearing this prop in one 35-minute game and missing by 2 PRA in one 30-minute game. I think tonight's game environment presents a nice case for Williamson to get over the 36 PRA hump.
De'Aaron Fox Over 2.5 Made Threes (-106)
The Pelicans give up more 3PA than any other team in the league, the Kings shoot the third-most threes per game, and De'Aaron Fox lets a team-high 8.3 3PA fly per game. This should be a great spot to target 3-plus three-balls from Fox.
Fox has cleared this prop in three out of his last four games and on the season is averaging 3.1 three-pointers made (3PM) per game.
He's played two games against New Orleans this season, going a combined 4 for 19 from downtown. The shot volume was there, but the makes were not. We probably shouldn't expect a third abysmal shooting performance (the percentage breakdown of these games was 16.7% 3P% and 28.6% 3P%), especially since he has a 37.0% 3P% this season and a 40.0% 3P% when playing at home.
The game environment should also favor Fox's shot volume. In last year's playoffs, Fox averaged three 3PM off of nine 3PA. The close 3.5-point spread could result in above-average 3PA numbers from Fox in the fourth quarter.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.