3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Friday 5/17/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Aaron Nesmith Over 15.5 Pts + Reb (-102)

The Indiana Pacers face elimination in tonight's Game 6 versus the New York Knicks, and from a betting perspective, it might be apt to get in on Aaron Nesmith's combined points and rebounds (PR) prop.

Nesmith averaged an even 16.0 PR in the regular season and is in a good spot to meet that number this evening.

For starters, he's averaging 19.3 PR in games where he has played at least 30 minutes. He cleared 15.5 PR at a 70.9% rate in this split (22 out of 31 contests), while these -102 odds suggest only a 50.5% probability.

FanDuel Research's projections expect Nesmith to log 34.56 minutes in Game 6. Given the win-or-go-home nature of this contest for Indiana and that Nesmith typically draws the defensive matchup against Jalen Brunson, he should have a long night in him.

Nesmith has surpassed 15.5 PR in three out of five games in this series, with the two misses coming at the hands of a pair of 28.7% FG% shooting nights. But on the season, he is rocking with a 49.6% FG%.

He's also netting 10.4 rebound chances per game in this series, so I like his prospects of corralling a decent number of boards in this one.

The Pacers (6.0-point favorites) have found ample success at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, going 5-0 in home playoff games this year. Nesmith has found similar success, averaging 18.2 PR and exceeding 15.5 PR in each home postseason contest.

Andrew Nembhard Over 13.5 Pts + Ast (-113)

I was happily surprised to find Andrew Nembhard's combined points and assists (PA) prop set this low.

In the postseason, Nembhard is averaging 16.8 PA and has exceeded 13.5 PA in 9 out of 11 games. The two misses correlated with a pair of below-average shooting performances (25.0% FG% and 33.3% FG%; he averages a 49.8% FG%), while he has cleared this prop in each game where he shot 40.0% or above from the field.

He's managed to outdo 13.5 PA in two straight games despite each of those contests being decided by an unreal 30 points or more.

Those two blowouts contained Nembhard to a mere 24.5 minutes per game, but tonight's contest should look a lot different.

While the Pacers are favored by 6.0 points and have been scorching-hot at home, the extra day of rest between games should help a depleted Knicks roster keep things competitive. Prior to the pair of blowouts -- which featured just one off-day in between games -- all nine of New York's playoff games were decided by 11 points or fewer.

Nembhard is playing 31.3 minutes per postseason game and averaged 29.0 minutes in the three close games of this series despite playing with an uncharacteristic five fouls in each game.

With tonight's game environment in mind, I like his chances to exceed 30 minutes. And if we check out games where Nembhard has played at least 30 minutes, he is averaging 17.0 PA and eclipsed 13.5 PA in 82.6% of games (19 out of 23 contests).

Our projections have him slated to record 14.9 PA this evening.

Donte DiVincenzo Threes Made Leader (+250)

I'm interested in the odds we are getting for Donte DiVincenzo in this market.

Leading up to tonight's Game 6, DiVincenzo has led this market in two games, Tyrese Haliburton led the game in two contests, and Alec Burks owned the title in Game 5.

DiVincenzo (+112) and Haliburton (+134) each have their made threes prop set at a game-high 3.5 three-point makes (3PM), but while DiVincenzo has shorter odds in that market, Haliburton (+220) actually owns shorter odds to be tonight's triples leader.

Ultimately, I think there are a few reasons to favor Donte.

DiVincenzo's consistency is quite appealing, especially in comparison to Haliburton. In the three competitive games in this series, the former averaged 6.0 3PM off 10.6 3PA, while the latter averaged 5.0 3PM off 10.6 3PA.

They may have shown identical average shot volumes in this span, but DiVincenzo (9, 12, and 11 3PA) was less volatile than Haliburton (5, 11, and 16 3PA).

He's also the better bucket, rocking a 40.1% 3P% to Haliburton's 36.4% 3P% this season. The fact that DiVincenzo owns a 43.2% 3P% in this series despite going 0-for-6 from long range in Tuesday's blowout victory speaks volumes, and he should be due for some positive regression tonight.

Indiana is full of depth and has the privilege of handing Hali some rest minutes throughout the game. The same cannot be said for New York, who played DiVincenzo a whopping 44 minutes in each of the three close games of this series (Hali averaged 36.3 minutes in that same span).

Our projections have DiVincenzo down for a game-high 3.6 3PM. Haliburton trails behind at an expected 3.2 3PM.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.