3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Friday 5/10/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Friday 5/10/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Myles Turner Over 25.5 Pts + Reb (-106)

The Indiana Pacers will look to get back on track after dropping a pair of games at MSG, and I'd expect Myles Turner to have a bounce-back game after going just 3-for-11 from the field on Wednesday.

Turner has been averaging 24.5 combined points and rebounds (PR) in the postseason. He owns a 52.4% FG% on the season, and if we account for only the five playoff games in which he shot above 30.0% from the field, he's averaging 29.6 PR.

He should see some positive regression in his shooting numbers. I'm also intrigued by how this game environment could benefit his stats.

Since OG Anunoby will be out, the New York Knicks lack any real depth. Indiana already plays at a super fast pace, and they should lean into that even more given that the Knicks are rocking with a small rotation.

In games where Turner has played at least 30 minutes, he is averaging 29.0 PR. Further, he surpassed 25.5 PR in 22 out of 29 games in this split (75.9% of contests).

For a game where he is projected to play 33.02 minutes and the key to his team's success is playing fast, it's easy to see value in the over.

FanDuel Research's projections expect Turner to go for 28.2 PR in Game 3.

Rudy Gobert Over 25.5 Pts + Reb (-104)

Rudy Gobert missed Game 2 of the Denver Nuggets versus Minnesota Timberwolves series due to personal reasons, but he's good to go for tonight and has an intriguing combined points and rebounds (PR) line.

In the regular season, Gobert averaged 26.9 PR per game.

He's eclipsed 25.5 PR in three out of five playoff games. But in postseason games where he shot above 50.0% from the field -- he owns a 66.1% FG% on the season -- he cleared 25.5 PR in three out of three games, averaging 30.0 PR in that span.

Gobert, who was just named the 2023-2024 Defensive Player of the Year, plays a big role against a team like Denver. He faced them twice in the final month of the regular season, posting 33 PR and 28 PR in each contest, respectively. Our projections, meanwhile, have him slated to log 36.86 minutes tonight.

In games where Gobert has played at least 30 minutes, he is averaging 28.9 PR. More importantly, he eclipsed 25.5 PR in 75.0% of these games (48 out of 64 contests), so it's easy to fall in love with these -104 odds, which imply just a 50.9% probability.

Nikola Jokic Over 21.5 Reb + Ast (-111)

The Nuggets need to get back on track after scoring a mere 80 points in Game 2, so let's look for Nikola Jokic to lead the playmaking and interior rebounding charge.

Jokic averaged 21.4 combined rebounds and assists (RA) in the regular season, but we see his numbers skyrocket in the postseason.

Last year, he averaged 23.0 RA through 20 playoff games, while he's averaging a whopping 26.3 RA through seven games this season. He exceeded 21.5 RA in five out of seven of those contests.

It should be all systems go as Denver risks going down 3-0, and our projections expect Jokic to play 40.3 minutes tonight.

In games where he has played at least 30 minutes, he is averaging 22.3 RA. If we adjust this split to only account for games that featured a 5.0-point spread or closer (Minnesota is favored by 3.5 points tonight), Jokic averaged 23.4 RA and cleared 21.5 RA in 18 out of 30 games.

He amassed 15 potential assists in Game 2 but struggled to convert these to the stat sheet after Denver went an appalling 29-for-83 from the field (34.9% FG%). Minnesota's defense is awesome, but we can't expect the clamps to come down that hard this time around.

Our projections expect him to record 22.3 RA tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.