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3 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Tuesday 11/26/24

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3 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Tuesday 11/26/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and NBA game projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NBA Betting Picks

Chicago Bulls at Washington Wizards

Wizards Under 120.5 Points (-110)

The highest total of the NBA's Tuesday slate by a mile is 245 in the Chicago Bulls-Washington Wizards game. This is mostly driven by each team sitting in the bottom three of defensive rating while also carrying top-four marks for the quickest paces, and the Bulls hold the 16th-best offensive rating and have logged over 120 points in five of their last seven games.

numberFire's game projections have the two combining for 232.4 points while DRatings has it at 240.1 points. Both models are pointing to the under, and numberFire is giving a 72.4% likelihood for the under compared to the -106 odds' 51.5% implied probability.

It goes beyond just the projections as the Wizards are logging only 102.3 points per game (PPG) over their previous four contests while the under hit in three of four contests. Washington's offense is inefficient in a load of categories, but it's at least attacking the rim with the 14th-most points in the paint per game while carrying the 15th-highest shot distribution at the rim (via Dunks & Threes). Meanwhile, Chicago gives up the most points in the paint per contest while surrendering the highest shot distribution at the rim. Still, the Wiz's 120.5 team prop feels too lofty.

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On the other side of the court, the Bulls lean on the three by attempting 42.6 shots per game (third-most) paired with the sixth-highest shot distribution from three. The Wizards are solid at defending the three, allowing the 14th-highest shot distribution from three-point land. This is right around the middle of the league and shouldn't cause too much worry.

While the defensive ratings and pace from each team are glaring, I'm going to trust the weak efficiency of Washington's offense. The unit is averaging only 108.5 points per game (fifth-fewest) along with a 51.1% effective field goal percentage (fifth-fewest). This team has reached 120 points in 1 of 11 games in November. The under for the 245 total is intriguing, but I'm steering more toward the Wizards' total as numberFire (114.9 points) and DRatings (118.5 points) both have them under the 120.5-mark.

Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat

Bucks Moneyline (+116)

There should be some hesitance around the 8-9 Milwaukee Bucks, but they've won four straight games and aren't facing a juggernaut in the Miami Heat (7-7). Plus, Miami holds a mediocre 3-3 record at home. With Milwaukee getting hot, I love its value as underdogs (+116).

Before jumping all in on the moneyline, let's look at how the Bucks can make this happen. The offense has heated up over the last three to the tune of 125.3 PPG while shooting 52.1% from the floor and 44.0% from three. Miami touts the 11th-best defensive rating, but it's given up at least 118 points in two of the last three.

The Heat surrender the 12th-most three-point shots per game and 12th-highest shot distribution from deep; that could be a recipe for disaster against a team that's blistering hot from beyond the arc. Milwaukee has even reached 50 points in the paint in two of the last three (season average is 44.9), and Miami gives up the 13th-most points in the paint per contest.

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Thanks to holding the 10th-slowest pace in the Association, the Heat's defensive rating has been boosted. The Bucks have the ability to speed this game up with the 14th-quickest pace. Milwaukee even carries a rebounding advantage with the seventh-highest defensive rebounding percentage while Miami is outside the top half in defensive and offensive rebounding rate.

Between the rolling offense and an advantage on the boards, give me the Bucks to pull off the upset on the road.

Houston Rockets at Minnesota Timberwolves

Rockets +4 (-110)

The Houston Rockets are off to an excellent 12-6 start while going 12-6 against the spread (ATS), leading to Houston carrying -225 odds to make the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Timberwolves are on a bit of a cold spell, carrying a 2-5 record straight up and ATS over the last seven. Considering the Rockets are 7-1 ATS over the previous eight, we could have our answer on which side to take.

Shot distribution numbers only provide more comfort for this pick. Minnesota loves to shoot the three, averaging the fifth-most attempts per game paired with the fourth-highest shot distribution. Houston gives up the fourth-fewest three-point attempts and makes per contest and the third-lowest shot distribution from deep.

It's a different story on the other side of the court. The T-Wolves hold the 13th-best defensive rating but have shown cracks in defending the rim (allows the seventh-most points in the paint per game). The Rockets average the eighth-most points in the paint per game while holding the seventh-highest shot distribution at the rim.

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Minnesota's interior defense feels far more vulnerable than a season ago as Julius Randle (114.3 defensive rating) and Naz Reid (115.4 defensive rating) hold the highest defensive ratings among qualifying players on the team. The Rockets' frontcourt should also hold an advantage on the glass, ranking in the top six of defensive and offensive rebounding percentages compared to the Wolves ranked 13th and 18th in the categories.

Perhaps the biggest concern for this pick will be the status of Jalen Green, for he's questionable with an illness. He leads the Rockets in scoring (18.7 PPG), but it shouldn't impact Houston's favorable frontcourt matchup too much as Green totals only 4.8 rebounds per game (RPG) while taking 49.0% of his shots from three.

DRatings is projecting a 1.3-point loss for the Rockets. I'll keep backing Houston ATS until the jets fall off.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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