3 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Friday 12/20/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and NBA game projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NBA Betting Picks

Charlotte Hornets at Philadelphia 76ers

Hornets Over 102.5 Points (-106)

Among tonight's three-game NBA slate, the 7-20 Charlotte Hornets visit the 8-16 Philadelphia 76ers. While the records suggest the two are comparable, the Hornets are 1-9 over their last 10 games while the 76ers carry a 5-2 record over their last 7.

We just saw Philadelphia defeat Charlotte by 13 points on December 16. A similar margin is expected with the Sixers favored by 10.5 points tonight. However, projection models are showing various results, and the statuses of Brandon Miller (ankle) and Joel Embiid (sinus fracture) are up in the air.

With that said, there's too many moving factors for the spread right now. Instead, let's look at some totals. The Hornets are carrying an obtainable number at 102.5. Keep in mind Charlotte logs 106.9 points per game (fourth-fewest) this season and has recorded 107.5 points per game (PPG) over its previous four outings.

While the 76ers feature the 11th-best defensive rating, this dips without Embiid's presence in the paint. Among players with at least 100 minutes logged this season, Embiid leads the squad with an elite 105.2 defensive rating. When Embiid is off the court, opponents' two-point percentage jumps from 52.7% to 57.3% and their effective field goal percentage (eFG%) goes from 51.8% to 56.3%.

The Hornets could get more looks around the rim (assuming Embiid is out), and that's certainly helpful for a team that logs only 41.1 points in the paint per game (third-fewest). Charlotte is already launching threes at a high clip, attempting 43.0 shots per game (third-most) while also sporting the third-highest shot distribution from three (via Dunks & Threes). Opponents tout the eighth-highest three-point shot distribution when facing Philadelphia.

Miller's status will likely be the biggest concern for the over as he logs 21.5 PPG. However, the Hornets' offense has actually posted improved numbers without Miller, recording 117.4 PPG over five games without the second-year wing in the lineup.

Milwaukee Bucks at Cleveland Cavaliers

Bucks +9 (-110)

Due to a lengthy injury report, the Milwaukee Bucks are heavy nine-point underdogs against the Cleveland Cavaliers. This seems way too harsh, though, as Giannis Antetokounmpo (patella) and Khris Middleton (illness) are both probable. The biggest factor in this spread is likely the absence of Damian Lillard (calf).

Lillard has missed three games this season, and the Bucks went 2-1 during that span. Granted, they had a favorable schedule during the span against the Toronto Raptors, Detroit Pistons, and Charlotte Hornets. The Cavaliers are a completely different beast, carrying a 23-4 record paired with the fifth-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals (+1400).

Let's do a deep dive of Milwaukee's numbers without Lillard on the court. Of course, Dame isn't known for his defense, proven by his 117.3 defensive rating this season. Considering the Bucks' sixth-best offensive rating, this is still one of the Association's best offenses with or without Dame Time. When he's off the floor, the Bucks' eFG% stays at 57.5% and their true shooting percentage doesn't drop much from 60.8% to 59.4%.

Milwaukee's three-point volume dips pretty much across the board when Lillard leaves the court, which lines up with his team-high 9.3 three-point shots per contest. The Bucks do not feature another player surpassing 5.2 three-point attempts per game.

Tonight's game will be about attacking the rim, and Cleveland looks to be a bit weaker here. According to Dunks & Threes, the Cavs give up a 41.5% three-point shot distribution (10th-lowest) compared to 33.0% around the rim (18th-lowest).

Led by Giannis (32.7 PPG) and Bobby Portis putting up over 20 points in two of his last four, this offense still has enough to find success against the Cavaliers. numberFire's NBA game projections have Cleveland winning 117.9-112.5, giving Milwaukee a 61.5% likelihood of covering. That's solid value compared to the -110 odds (52.4% implied).

Oklahoma City Thunder at Miami Heat

Heat Moneyline (-116)

Friday's final game of the night is shaping up to be the best matchup as it features two potential playoff teams in the Oklahoma City Thunder and Miami Heat. It's viewed as a pick 'em with the Heat favored by one point at home.

Even numberFire's projections have Miami by only one point, which also gives the Heat moneyline a 53.1% likelihood. This isn't implying any big difference in value as the -116 odds for the moneyline carries a 53.7% implied probability. Good ol' fashioned number crunching will have to give us the edge here.

Initially, the Heat's offense looks to be in deep trouble as the 10th-worst offensive rating. Meanwhile, OKC's defense continues to be daunting by boasting the fourth-best defensive rating paired with opponents averaging 103.1 PPG (the fewest) and a 50.0 eFG% (the lowest). What's even more impressive is the Thunder is doing this while playing at the league's fifth-quickest pace.

However, Miami has the tools to crack this tough nut. It attempts and makes the ninth-most three-pointers, boosted by a 37.9% three-point percentage (seventh-highest). Over the last five games, the Heat are 4-1 while shooting 40.8% from three-point land. What's the one potential weakness of Oklahoma City's defense? You probably guessed it.

The Thunder give up the 13th-most three-point shots per contest. Frankly, this unit is somewhat lucky to give up the sixth-fewest three-point makes per game with opponents shooting only 33.4% from beyond the arc (second-lowest). This kind of fortune will likely run out against one of basketball's most potent three-point attacks.

On the other side of the ball, the Thunder take the 10th-most three-point shots per game paired with a measly 34.4% three-point percentage (8th-lowest). Oklahoma City's best route for points is attacking the rim with the 13th-most points in the paint per contest. But this is where Miami's defense thrives by ceding the 16th-fewest points in the paint per game and the 13th-lowest shot distribution around the rim.

In a sport ruled by three-pointers, give me the Heat to win with their advantage from beyond the arc.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $150 in Bonus Bets if your first bet of $5+ wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for the latest NBA odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NBA betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.