MLB

3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 5/15/24

Austan Kas
Austan Kas@AustanKas

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

MLB Player Props

Austin Gomber Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (-120)

I'm jumping in with an afternoon game as I think there are a few reasons to like this Austin Gomber prop in today's Colorado Rockies-San Diego Padres clash, which starts at 4:11 p.m. ET.

Gomber owns a 3.43 ERA through his first 44 2/3 innings, but he's been pretty lucky. His 84.8% strand rate is well above his 70.9% career average. It's the same story with Gomber's BABIP as his current .248 clip is markedly better than his .295 career BABIP. As a result, all of Gomber's ERA estimators are significantly higher than his ERA, including a 4.66 SIERA and 4.59 expected ERA (xERA).

He's struggled against right-handed hitters, too, giving up a .330 wOBA with a meager 14.4% strikeout rate in the split. That should spell trouble against the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts.

Gomber needs to pitch 5 2/3 innings for the over to hit. Our projections have him completing 5.08 innings today. The under is the side I want to be on.

In addition to that, I don't mind Tatis to Record 2+ Bases (+100). Tatis' 2024 numbers versus southpaws are down, but that's mostly due to a lowly .200 BABIP in the split. With the platoon advantage in 2023, Tatis went nuts to the tune of a .391 wOBA. At home versus lefties a campaign ago, he produced a gaudy .458 wOBA. He's got the power and speed to get two bases in one swing.

Yordan Alvarez to Record an RBI (+100)

The Houston Astros are expected to do damage tonight at home against Aaron Brooks, with Houston's implied total sitting at 4.77. They're a good offense to have on your radar for batter props, and I'm zeroing in on Yordan Alvarez.

On the surface, Alvarez is off to a slow start this season. His wOBA is .337, and he's driven in just 20 runs through 42 games. But under the hood, it's mostly business as usual for one of baseball's best hitters as Yordan boasts a .395 expected wOBA (xwOBA) with a 45.5% fly-ball rate.

Alvarez ended 2023 with truly insane numbers against righties, including a .436 wOBA, 48.3% hard-hit rate and 50.2% fly-ball rate. He has a good chance to make some noise today versus the right-handed Brooks.

Brooks hasn't pitched in the bigs since a cup of coffee in 2022. He has 180 career MLB frames to his name, and he's mustered a 4.81 SIERA and 16.1% K rate. In 43 1/3 Triple-A innings this season, he's managed to strike out only 16.8% of hitters. While baseball can be random and weird, there's just nothing in Brooks' profile that points to him having a good day versus the Astros.

Houston recently bumped up Kyle Tucker to second in the order, with Yordan hitting third, meaning Alvarez is slotted right behind Tucker and Jose Altuve. That's a dang good spot to be for RBI production, and I like this +100 number on Yordan to drive in a run.

Corey Seager to Record 2+ Total Bases (-120)

Tonight's top implied total (4.87) belongs to the Texas Rangers for their date with veteran righty Carlos Carrasco.

In his age-37 season, Carrasco is still getting big league hitters out, but the low-fuel light is on as the tank is getting close to empty. Carrasco's xERA is an ugly 5.24, and his swinging-strike rate is 9.7%, his lowest mark since 2013. A year ago, lefties blowtorched him for a .379 wOBA while striking out just 13.4% of the time.

Enter Corey Seager.

The Rangers' shortstop is having a similar kind of start to the aforementioned Alvarez -- it seems like he's slumping, but for the most part, he's just fine. While Seager's wOBA is .298, his xwOBA is a much more appealing .357. His 41.4% fly-ball rate is actually a career-best clip. A .260 BABIP is mostly to blame for the bad results. Seager's career BABIP is .317.

The results are starting to come around, too, as Seager has registered a .418 wOBA with three dongs across his past 35 plate appearances.

Lastly, Seager is really good against right-handed hurlers. So far in 2024, he's struck out just 9.0% of the time in the split while putting up a 43.0% fly-ball rate.

Seager to get 2+ bases is my recommendation, but Seager to Record 3+ Bases (+190) is worth a peek, as well.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.