3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 5/14/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 5/14/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

MLB Prop Bets

Wilyer Abreu To Record An RBI (+145)

The Boston Red Sox will get a go at a struggling Aaron Civale tonight, so let's look for AL Rookie of the Year candidate (+650 odds) Wilyer Abreu to bat in a run.

Before we dive into this awesome matchup, let's check out the odds on this prop.

Abreu has recorded at least one RBI in 13 out of 29 games in the starting lineup (44.8% of contests), while +145 odds imply a 40.8% probability.

Factor in a friendly matchup and game environment (9.0 O/U; tied for second-highest on the slate), and it seems we are getting a solid deal on this prop.

Civale's 3.95 xERA and 3.64 xFIP indicate he is a better pitcher than his 5.88 ERA would suggest, but there's still reason to be concerned here. He's let up a least one bomb in seven out of eight starts, leaving him with 1.74 HR/9 (sixth-worst in MLB among 90 eligible players).

He hasn't quite been able to make the grade against lefties. Dating back to the start of last season, he has allowed a .411 SLG, 1.19 HR/9, and 37.6% fly-ball rate to this handedness.

But the real struggles have come this season, in particular. Civale has surrendered a .306 BA, .532 SLG, 2.63 HR/9, and 40.9% fly-ball rate through 13 2/3 IP against left-handed batters. While these numbers will eventually stabilize and regress, they are still a bit troubling, and Abreu has the power to exploit.

In 103 plate appearances against righties this season, Abreu has managed a .318 BA, .569 SLG, .227 ISO, and 164 wRC+. Boston's leadoff hitters -- typically lefty Jarren Duran -- own the 10th-best batting average in baseball, while their number-two hitters, which is where Abreu is expected to bat, have recorded the 10th-most RBIs.

Freddie Freeman To Record An RBI (+115)

With Keaton Winn set to take the mound for the San Francisco Giants, the Los Angeles Dodgers, who lead the league in runs per game, could have a run-heavy night in them.

Let's turn to Freddie Freeman, who has a solid opportunity to make an impact at the plate.

Freeman has been downright lethal against right-handed pitchers this season, sporting a .341 BA, .582 SLG, .242 ISO, and 189 wRC+.

Winn has let up a walloping 12 ER across his last two appearances, all in a matter of just 4 2/3 IP.

While the right-hander has actually been significantly better against lefties, he still lets up some pop in the split, including a 36.1% hard-hit rate and 1.03 HR/9 through 35 IP in his career.

With Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani serving as LA's two-headed monster at the top of the lineup, I like Freeman's chances to come up to the plate with runners in scoring position.

Josh Rojas To Record 2+ Total Bases (+135)

Michael Wacha has been getting dinged up left and right, and Josh Rojas has the matchup to continue that trend tonight.

Rojas has recorded at least two bases in 15 out of 30 games started this season, so there's value to be had with these +135 odds (42.6% implied probability).

Not only does Rojas own a .343 BA (tied for fourth-best in MLB; minimum 100 PA), but he's got stellar splits against righties, in particular.

Through 108 plate appearances this year, Rojas is rocking with a .358 BA, .537 SLG, and 180 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.

Wacha, meanwhile, is suffering a 5.15 ERA, 4.04 xERA, and 4.33 xFIP this season. In 23 IP against lefty bats, he has allowed a .284 BA and .443 SLG.

He's let up the 12th-most hits per inning and should have a tough time dealing with the leadoff batter for the Seattle Mariners, who owns a .370 BA through 54 AB in that slot.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.