MLB

3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 5/16/24

Austan Kas
Austan Kas@AustanKas

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

MLB Player Props

Francisco Lindor to Score a Run (+110)

Our model put me on this one as our projections are pretty high on Francisco Lindor today.

Lindor and the New York Mets are on the road at the Philadelphia Phillies and will see Taijuan Walker. A righty, Walker is a pretty meh pitcher, recording a 4.89 SIERA and 18.9% strikeout rate since the start of 2023 (191 1/3 innings).

Lindor is definitely struggling so far in 2024, but he's slowly coming back to form, posting an impressive 9.6% K rate across his past 52 plate appearances and scoring a run in 8 of 12 games in that time.

This game being in Philly is a big help, too. Not only did Lindor do much more damage on the road (.366 wOBA) than at home (.323 wOBA) a campaign ago, but Citizens Bank Park (11th in Park Factor) is a much softer spot for bats than Citi Field (next to last) is. Plus, being on the road ensures Lindor's team will bat in the ninth inning, which doesn't hurt things.

We project Lindor -- who will likely be slotted right in front of Pete Alonso and J.D. Martinez -- to score 0.80 runs today. That's the day's second-highest run projection.

Randy Arozarena to Record an RBI (+165)

Randy Arozarena was ice cold for the first part of the season. He's heating up now, and I like these +165 odds on him to drive in a run.

The Tampa Bay Rays are facing Cooper Criswell. The right-handed Criswell has been getting it done so far this season as he sports a 3.25 SIERA and 2.10 ERA. But I'm not sure how long this will last. Criswell's swinging-strike rate it just 7.3%, and he's been getting lucky in terms of both BABIP (.258) and strand rate (84.1%).

I think the Rays (4.00 implied total) have some success against Criswell, and Arozarena can be at the heart of it.

As mentioned, the Rays' slugger is trending up, mashing his way to a .376 wOBA in May to go along with a 44.8% hard-hit rate and 58.6% fly-ball rate so far this month. He's hit second, third or fourth in the order in every one of his starts in 2024, and being on the road could get him an extra plate appearance in the ninth.

Arozarena is our number-one bat tonight for DFS, per our model, so we're projecting him to do big things.

Shohei Ohtani to Record 2+ Total Bases (-110)

As is the case most days, the Los Angeles Dodgers have one of the night's top outlooks as they're implied to score 4.64 runs.

Brent Suter is the probable starter for the Cincinnati Reds, but this is likely to be a Johnny Wholestaff game for Cincy as Suter has worked exclusively out of the 'pen this year and has topped 40 pitches in an appearance only one time.

The lack of certainty regarding hitter-pitcher matchups creates some volatility on the Dodgers' side of things, but regardless of who is on the bump for the Reds, I feel good backing Ohtani. It doesn't hurt that Cincinnati's bullpen is 20th in xFIP (4.16) and has surrendered the sixth-highest clip in homers per nine (1.17).

LA's superstar is having a special season thus far, and after a red-hot start, he's somehow upped his game even more. Across his past 44 plate appearances, Ohtani has a .599 wOBA, .897 slugging percentage, .462 average, 298 wRC+, .436 ISO and 5 taters. Baseball is supposed to be hard.

Ohtani isn't walking a crazy amount, either, with an 11.4% walk rate in that span. That is a good thing for this market as we want him putting the ball in play instead of working a free pass.

Ohtani has 11 total bases over just the past three games. Returning to Dodger Stadium, where he's put up an eye-popping .488 wOBA this season, Ohtani can keep it going on Thursday.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.