3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays for Wednesday 5/22/24

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD
3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays for Wednesday 5/22/24

Finding low-salary production is one way to get a leg up on the competition in MLB DFS.

Here are some value plays to target on FanDuel for today's main slate.

Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs. Betting lines via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Betting odds as well as our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- may change after this article is published.

MLB DFS Value Plays

Blake Snell, P, Pirates ($8,100)

Today's main slate on FanDuel features just three starting pitchers with sub-$8K salaries. Those three are either: up against the Atlanta Braves (Justin Steele), at Great American Ball Park (Nick Martinez), or pitching for the Chicago White Sox (Nick Nastrini).

Not ideal.

But Blake Snell is off the IL and carries a mere $8.1K salary against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

That'll play.

After a delayed start to the year, Snell struggled mightily across three starts. Prior to his IL stint, Snell surrendered 15 runs over 11 2/3 innings. He did strike out 12 but also walked five and totaled 26 FanDuel points.

Again, not ideal.

But I'm willing to cut Snell some slack considering he didn't sign with San Francisco Giants until the end of Spring Training. Though we're well aware of Snell's inconsistencies at this point, he's still coming off a Cy Young season that saw him pitch to a 1.23 ERA with a 35% K rate from June onward.

The southpaw exceeded 40 FanDuel points in 15 of his final 21 starts, averaging 46.8 FanDuel points per game over that stretch.

So, we know the upside is there, and I don't mind the matchup at Petco Park -- a bottom-10 venue for right-handed hitters, per Statcast Park Factors.

The Pirates started all righties the last time they faced a left-handed pitcher, and they'll start at least seven tonight. They do have the 13th-highest wOBA (.317) in that split but also the sixth-highest K rate (24.6%) and seventh-highest groundball rate (45.3%).

It doesn't hurt that their offense has sputtered of late. Pittsburgh has averaged a lowly 3.83 runs per game this month, registering the highest called-plus-swinging-strike rate (30.5%) in baseball.

There's certainly risk with Snell fresh off IL, but he looked MLB-ready in his final rehab start. He pitched five scoreless innings at Triple-A Sacramento, punching out 10 and generating a 47% called-plus-swinging-strike rate. Tonight, his strikeout prop is just 5.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook, and he makes for a high-upside, low-salary option in DFS.

Davis Schneider, 2B/OF, Blue Jays ($3,100)

The Toronto Blue Jays have the luxury of facing the aforementioned Nick Nastrini, and they have the slate's highest implied total (5.01) as a result.

Toronto has a few low-salary hitters to choose from, but I'll put my eggs in Davis Schneider's $3.1K basket.

The dual 2B/OF eligible righty has been a Statcast darling since his debut last season. Schneider is 70th percentile or better in expected wOBA (.346) and expected SLG (.453), and his walk rate is up to 10.9%. Perhaps most significant for fantasy is his 98th percentile 18.3% barrel rate -- the Statcast metric with the strongest correlation to FanDuel points.

Against righties specifically, Schneider has compiled a .363 wOBA and .814 OPS, so I'm happy to match him up with Nastrini and the Sox.

Nastrini is back in the majors after a two-start stint in April that went poorly, to say the least. The righty let up seven earned runs across eight innings, walking seven and striking out eight. Neither his 7.88 ERA nor 5.39 FIP give me much pause in rostering Blue Jays tonight.

Schneider boasts the fourth-shortest odds to hit a home run (+390) in this game, and he has +110 odds to record 2+ total bases.

We project him for a slate-best 14.7 FanDuel points, making him the top point-per-dollar value on the slate (4.74 FanDuel points per $1,000).

Luis Arraez, 2B, Padres ($2,800)

In 15 games since being traded to the San Diego Padres, Luis Arraez is batting .359 with a .397 on-base percentage and .803 OPS.

He's stolen three bases, scored seven runs, and racked up four RBI over that span, culminating in 9.6 FanDuel points per game.

While Arraez has hit 15 FanDuel points only four times in that sample, the Padres have scored the fifth-fewest runs in the league across that stretch.

Today, San Diego has a 4.91 implied total in an advantageous matchup at Great American Ball Park -- Statcast's fourth-best venue for hitters. There is a chance for rain in Cincinnati, but low-80s temps and modest wind are a nice recipe for runs.

Arraez and the Padres are up against Nick Martinez, a righty who's pitched to a 4.23 ERA this season. Martinez has just a 17.6% K rate, and he's giving up 23% line-drive and 44.4% fly-ball rates.

On top of that, lefties have racked up a .326 wOBA against Martinez. Arraez himself has a .363 wOBA against righties this season. He has -110 odds to record 2+ total bases and -115 odds to record a run on FanDuel Sportsbook.

The contact-savvy Arraez offers a sound floor every time out, but there's a nice ceiling as the leadoff hitter in a plus matchup tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.