3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays for Tuesday 4/23/24

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD

Finding low-salary production is one way to get a leg up on the competition in MLB DFS.

Here are some value plays to target on FanDuel for today's main slate.

Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs. Betting lines via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Betting odds as well as our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- may change after this article is published.

MLB DFS Value Plays

Max Fried, P, Braves ($8,300)

Max Fried has had a rough start for the Atlanta Braves. A year removed from going 8-1 with a 2.55 ERA and 25.7% strikeout rate across 77 2/3 innings, Fried has struggled to a 7.71 ERA and 15.0% K rate through four 2024 starts.

That's caused his FanDuel salary to dip, but the underlying numbers have me bullish on Fried in tonight's matchup with the Miami Marlins.

The numbers at face value are bad -- there's no sugar-coating that. Fried's given up multiple runs in three of four starts, exceeding 12 FanDuel points (FPs) just once.

But that one good start came against the same lowly Marlins lineup he'll face tonight. Fried went for 38 FPs against Miami just 11 days ago, giving up a single run and five total base-runners over 6 1/3 innings. We project him for 37.0 FPs tonight, making him the top point-per-dollar value among pitchers (4.46 FPs per $1,000).

That projection is certainly in the realm of possibilities considering how bad Miami has been against lefties. They have the second lowest wOBA (.248) and ISO (.087) in addition to a 20.6% strikeout rate against southpaws.

Fried, meanwhile, could be due for some positive regression. Despite the shaky numbers, Fried's skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) is only 4.56, and he's actually allowing a lower hard-hit rate this year (29.3%) compared to last (32.7%). The lefty has permitted a .375 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) despite forcing the highest groundball rate (59.6%) since his rookie season.

In a soft matchup, look for Fried to bounce back and get his season on track tonight. At $8.3K, he's a strong value.

Travis d'Arnaud, C, Braves ($3,000)

Let's stay in Atlanta for a value hitter in Travis d'Arnaud.

The right-handed catcher is on an absolute heater right now, smashing five home runs and racking up 10 RBI across his last four games. He's gone 6 for 13 over that span, increasing his season-long wOBA to .421 to go along with a .364 ISO.

Of his five homers, four have come against lefties. He has a downright silly 1.727 OPS against southpaws.

One-point-seven-two-seven. My created player in MLB The Show would be jealous of that.

Granted, we can't expect d'Arnaud to keep producing at this level. It's over a puny 11 at-bat sample, though it's worth noting his career wOBA (.349) and ISO (.204) against lefties is significantly higher than his wOBA (.309) and ISO (.171) against righties.

That makes me a bit more trusting of his early numbers against lefties, so I'm happy to roster him at $3K against Miami's Trevor Rogers.

Rogers held Atlanta to just a pair of runs earlier this month, and he has pitched to a 3.92 ERA this season. But he's allowing the highest hard-hit rate (40%) of his career, and his average fastball velocity is down to a career-low 92.3 MPH.

It helps that the Braves have a stellar 5.07 implied total and that they're playing at Truist Park -- the fourth-best venue for right-handed power, per Statcast Park Factors.

That makes d'Arnaud an intriguing value tonight, especially since it's Dinger Tuesday. Travis d'Arnaud has +470 odds to hit a home run on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Alex Bregman, 3B, Astros ($2,700)

Alex Bregman hasn't been his usual self through 20 games of the season. He's yet to homer, has driven in just five runs, and is batting .213.

But his hard-hit rate (37.9%) has gone unchanged from last year, and he's underperforming relative to his xBA (.236), xSLG (.332), and xwOBA (.303).

Bregman has had trouble hitting line drives, but he's putting the ball in the air at a career-high 50.0% rate.

That bodes well for his chances tonight against Chicago Cubs lefty Jordan Wicks.

Wicks is running a 5.29 ERA through four starts, and he has yet to finish the fifth inning. He's suffered some bad luck via a .408 BABIP, but 12.0% barrel and 36% hard-hit rates aren't anything to shy away from.

Bregman, meanwhile, has a career .371 wOBA and .216 ISO against left-handed pitchers. He should benefit from wind blowing out at Wrigley Field, and we project him for 13.1 FPs tonight. That's good for the second-best point-per-dollar hitter on the slate (4.86 FPs per $1,000).

Bregman is listed at +470 odds to hit a home run in a game in which the Houston Astros have a 5.10 implied team total.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.