MLB

3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays for Tuesday 4/2/24

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD
3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays for Tuesday 4/2/24

Finding low-salary production is one way to get a leg up on the competition in MLB DFS.

Here are some value plays to target on FanDuel for today's main slate.

Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs. Betting lines via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Projections and odds may change after this article is published.

MLB DFS Value Plays

Javier Assad, P, Cubs ($6,200)

Before I dive into Javier Assad, keep in mind that weather is a major factor in the MLB tonight. Rainy conditions are expected across the country, and that could impact tonight's Colorado Rockies-Chicago Cubs clash.

But assuming Mother Nature holds up, the right-handed Assad is in a nice spot to out-perform his $6.2K salary.

Right off the bat, getting the Rockies away from Coors Field is a strong matchup. In 2023, Colorado posted the second-lowest wOBA (.285) and ISO (.132) away from home. They had the league's highest road strikeout rate (27.3%) and third-lowest walk rate (7.2%). In five road games this season, they've scored more than three runs just once, ranking 27th in wOBA (.255) and posting the MLB's 10th-highest strikeout rate (25.3%).

As for Assad, the 26-year-old is coming off a strong 2023 season that saw him toss 109.1 innings across 32 appearances. He started 10 games, racking up a 4.48 xFIP, 19.0% strikeout rate, and 45.6% groundball rate. Though he had only four quality starts, Assad flashed fantasy relevance with three 40-FanDuel-point (FP) outings over his final three starts.

Despite sub-par Spring Training numbers, Assad pitched well over his final three appearances, surrendering three earned runs while striking out 10 across 9.1 innings.

With his stock trending up, Assad projects well tonight. Our numberFire projections peg Assad for 29.2 FPs, making him the second-best point-per-dollar value among pitchers (4.71 FPs per $1,000). numberFire projects Assad to pitch 5.35 innings, allow 2.11 earned runs, and rack up 4.97 strikeouts. Notably, Assad's strikeouts prop is set at 4.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Trevor Story, SS, Red Sox ($2,800)

After an injury-riddled first season with the Boston Red Sox, Trevor Story has gotten off to a slow start in 2024.

Through five games, Story is hitting just .190 with one run and a pair of RBI.

That said, he's picked it up over the last two games, going 3-for-8 and racking up 25.2 FPs.

Against lefty Alex Wood and the lowly Oakland Athletics, Story is in a nice spot tonight. The 33-year-old Wood had the worst SIERA (4.98) of his career in 2023 and struggled mightily in his 2024 debut. In the season opener, Wood surrendered seven hits and six runs across 3.1 innings against the Cleveland Guardians.

That bodes well for Story and the entire Red Sox lineup -- Wood's struggles are a big reason Boston is among the slate's top stacks.

But Wood's handiness is what has me excited for Trevor Story in particular. The middle-infielder has shredded southpaws throughout his career with a .404 wOBA and .971 OPS -- compared to a .332 wOBA and .782 OPS against righties.

It helps that numberFire projects Story for 9.7 FanDuel points (3.46 per $1,000) and that Boston has a 4.26 implied team total.

Travis d'Arnaud, C, Braves ($2,600)

An injury to Sean Murphy has opened the door for Travis d'Arnaud to play every day in a potent Atlanta Braves lineup.

Although d'Arnaud is hitting only .222 to open the year, he kicked off Atlanta's series with the Chicago White Sox in style, going 1-for-3 with a double, a walk, and a run.

The 35-year-old proved he still has plenty left in the tank last season when he belted out 11 home runs with 39 RBI in just 74 games. He was much better against southpaws, just as he has been throughout his career. The 12-year vet owns a career .340 wOBA and .794 OPS against lefties -- compared to a .309 wOBA and .315 OPS against righties.

That should come in handy against the White Sox's Garrett Crochet tonight. The lefty had a dominant debut, but that came against the Detroit Tigers. He faces an uphill battle replicating that success against Atlanta tonight. Despite gaudy strikeout numbers, Crochet gives up a lot of fly balls and has a career 4.42 xFIP against right-handed hitters.

d'Arnaud should be able to take advantage of those splits, and he benefits from hitting in a Braves lineup that has a slate-best 5.27 implied total.

While the catcher hasn't hit one out of the park yet in 2024, he has +470 odds to hit a home run on FanDuel Sportsbook -- something to keep in mind on Dinger Tuesday.

numberFire projects d'Arnaud for 10.6 FanDuel points, making him the fourth-best point per dollar value among hitters (4.08 FPs per $1,000).


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.