3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays for Friday 5/17/24

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3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays for Friday 5/17/24

Finding low-salary production is one way to get a leg up on the competition in MLB DFS.

Here are some value plays to target on FanDuel for today's main slate.

Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs. Betting lines via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Betting odds as well as our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- may change after this article is published.

MLB DFS Value Plays

Ryan Feltner, P, Rockies ($7,300)

It's not every day I want to target a Colorado Rockies pitcher. But the Rockies are on the road tonight, taking on the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park -- the fourth-worst venue for hitters, per Statcast Park Factors.

That puts Ryan Feltner in a nice spot to outperform his FanDuel salary, especially considering how bad the Giants have been against righties.

Entering Friday, San Fran ranks 23rd in wOBA (.300) and ISO (.129), all while striking out at a 22.3% clip against righties. Their 97 wRC+ in that split ranks just 19th.

Feltner's surface-level numbers aren't really indicative of how well he's pitched, and that's largely why we're getting him at such a low salary tonight. Feltner's pitched to a 3.85 SIERA through eight starts. He's running a modest 20.5% K rate, though he does have a 10-punchout outing on his resume.

He's gotten a tad unlucky via a .346 BABIP, partially explaining his 5.20 ERA. That's noticeably higher than his 3.23 expected ERA.

Feltner excels at generating weak contact. He's surrendered a 5.0% barrel rate, 34.8% hard-hit rate, and 48.2% ground ball rate -- all 70th percentile or better marks league-wide.

That matches up nicely against a Giants side that's generated soft contact at the third-highest rate against right-handed pitchers.

So while there are several high-salary arms at the top, Ryan Feltner presents an intriguing value option if you want to load up on hitters -- something to consider with six teams boasting implied totals north of 4.50.

Ezequiel Duran, 1B/3B/SS/OF, Rangers ($2,300)

Speaking of implied totals, the Texas Rangers have the slate's highest at 4.97.

They're up against the Los Angeles Angels and lefty Tyler Anderson -- someone we shouldn't shy away from in fantasy.

Anderson's pitched to a 2.92 ERA through eight starts, but he's due for some regression. The southpaw has a career-low .223 BABIP, and he's stranded runners on base at the highest mark of his career (82.3%).

But his K rate (17.9%) isn't anything to sweat, and the lefty's still surrendered 1.09 HR/9 despite the seemingly strong numbers. There's a reason his SIERA (4.78) and FIP (4.45) are both substantially higher than his ERA.

Perhaps most telling is Anderson's 20th percentile barrel rate (9.7%). For hitters, barrels have the strongest correlation with FanDuel points among Statcast metrics, so targeting pitchers that yield high barrel rates is a sound strategy.

That brings us to utility man Ezequiel Duran. Duran is a favorite value of mine thanks to his multi-positional eligibility and spot in a high-powered Rangers lineup. He is averaging only 4.8 FanDuel points per game this season, so we have to pick our spots.

Typically, those spots are when he's up against a southpaw. Duran put up a .354 wOBA and .231 ISO against lefties last season, and he's upped that wOBA to .374 in 2024. He has yet to homer this year but blasted six of his 14 home runs against lefties in 2023.

Duran has +140 odds to record 2+ total bases and +120 odds to record a run tonight. He may only hit seventh in the Rangers' lineup, but that's not a bad spot to be when you play for a top-10 offense.

Given his left-handed splits and soft matchup, it's easy to get behind Duran at $2.3K. He's an ideal one-off given how many different positions he plays, too.

Alex Verdugo, OF, Yankees ($3,100)

The New York Yankees are one of the today's top stacks in their home date with the Chicago White Sox, so it makes sense to turn to them for some value.

Righty Mike Clevinger will toe the rubber for the south siders, adding to the Yanks' appeal. Clevinger has only made two starts in 2024, but he already has a 5.40 ERA. His velocity is down across the board, as is his K rate (14.7%).

While we can't take too much away from 6.2 innings, Clevinger was a pitcher to target last year too. He finished with a respectable 3.77 ERA, but his 4.81 SIERA and 5.37 FIP told a different story.

We're a few years removed from Clevinger being a pitcher to fear. Alex Verdugo should be able to take advantage.

Verdugo has gotten off to a strong start to his Yankee career, putting up 9.04 FanDuel points per game through 42 games.

He's been especially effective against righties, against whom he owns a .342 wOBA and 6.7% K rate. Strong marks against right-handed pitchers are nothing new for the lefty. For his career, Verdugo owns a .344 wOBA, .171 ISO, and 116 wRC+ in that split.

Four of Verdugo's five homers have come against righties this season, mirroring a 2023 season that saw 12 of his 13 taters come against righties. He has +520 odds to hit a home run tonight.

As New York's cleanup hitter, Verdugo also benefits from Anthony Volpe, Juan Soto, and Aaron Judge batting ahead of him. That's allowed him to rack up three RBI in his last three games. He has +135 odds to record an RBI tonight.

Verdugo is an essential part of any Yankee stack, but he's certainly worth it as a one-off given the friendly salary.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.