MLB

3 MLB Best Bets for Wednesday 5/29/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles, 6:35 p.m. ET

Over 7.5 Runs (-102)

As with most seasons, the AL East is quite competitive in 2024. That will be put on display Wednesday evening when the Boston Red Sox (28-27) and Baltimore Orioles (34-19) wrap up a series at Camden Yards. This will be a rubber match as the divisional foes have split results over the past two nights.

Game 3 in Baltimore will feature projected starters Kutter Crawford and Corbin Burnes. Both pitchers have been solid this season; Crawford owns a 4.06 xFIP while Burnes is tagged with a 3.30 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). Still, I think these lineups can combine for more than 7.5 runs (-102 odds) at Oriole Park tonight.

The O's and BoSox each operate with potent offenses. In terms of team OPS, Baltimore is at .739 whereas Boston is close behind at .720 -- both clips are good enough to fall within MLB's top 10. From there, the Orioles are one of only three teams to have launched more than 70 homers in 2024.

On the year, the Red Sox have produced 4.42 runs per game. Across the way, Baltimore has been a bit better, scoring 5.02 runs per game. These sides have combined for about 9.44 runs per game.

FanDuel Sportsbook's -102 odds on over 7.5 runs here translates to a 50.5% implied probability. However, numberFire offers support for the over, giving the over a 56.22% winning likelihood. With that, I like Boston and Baltimore to provide eight or more total runs.

Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET

Guardians -1.5 (+104)

In the Mile High, the Cleveland Guardians (37-18) are set for Game 3 versus the Colorado Rockies (19-35). Over the past two contests, we've seen 24 total runs scored in this interleague series. I think that continues on Wednesday, just more so for Cleveland than for Colorado.

The probable pitchers at Coors Field tonight are fellow southpaws Ty Blach and Logan Allen. Blach currently has a 4.82 SIERA, which is middle of the road for his seven-season career. On the other side, Allen has posted a 4.10 SIERA for Cleveland in just his second year.

Not only do I trust the younger lefty in this meeting, but Cleveland's offense is on another level compared to the Rockies' offense. The Guardians don't have the benefit of hitting in an exorbitant hitter's park like Coors Field for half their games, but they have scored 5.13 runs per game. Comparatively, the Rockies have scored only 4.18 runs per game.

With all aspects considered, I like Cleveland on the run line (+104 odds) this evening. Notably, the Guardians have thrived en route to a 33-22 ATS record (60%). Currently, that is sufficient for the third-best cover rate in baseball.

The MLB franchise from Lake Erie's shores is playing prolifically in 2024. At the moment, Cleveland has won 9 of its past 10 games. Against the southpaw Blach, I expect the Guardians to keep it rolling. In particular, infielders Jose Ramirez and Andres Gimenez should have big nights.

Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners, 9:40 p.m. ET

Mariners Moneyline (-116)

On Wednesday, the Houston Astros (24-31) are looking to avoid being swept at the Seattle Mariners (30-26). Much to Houston's dismay, Seattle is now in the AL West's top spot while the Astros are still recovering from a slow start to the campaign.

There will be an intriguing matchup on the mound at T-Mobile Park. Three-time Cy Young Award recipient Justin Verlander will take the ball for H-Town while George Kirby is scheduled to be the home starter. The veteran Verlander is working behind a 4.86 FIP this season, which is one of his worst career marks in that category. For Kirby, he owns a 3.59 xFIP so far this campaign.

In this divisional clash, I like the Mariners to win outright (-116 moneyline). Houston's lineup has been stifled by Seattle pitching for two consecutive nights. That is also due to quality relief work. To this point in the year, the bullpen in the Emerald City has MLB's fourth-best WHIP (1.16). Simply, when the M's get a lead, they do well to hold it.

In the current season, Seattle has had Houston's number thus far. Through five head-to-head meetings in 2024, the Mariners have won four times against the Astros (including four consecutive). From there, Seattle is 17-10 this year when playing in their own building.

According to numberFire's MLB power rankings, the Mariners (0.92 nERD) rank as the sixth-best team in baseball. Conversely, the Astros (0.30 nERD) are further down at 14th overall.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.