MLB

3 MLB Best Bets for Wednesday 5/15/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, 7:10 p.m. ET

Over 8.0 Runs (-114)

Yet again, the American League East is proving to be a fiercely competitive grouping. On Wednesday, this will be put on full display at Fenway when the Boston Red Sox (22-20) host the Tampa Bay Rays (21-22).

This will be the third contest of a four-game set for the Rays and BoSox. So far, these sides have split results with the first two bids producing 8.5 total runs per game. I think Tampa and Boston can combine for more than eight runs (-114 odds) for the second consecutive night.

Toeing the rubber today at Fenway Park -- a known hitter's venue -- will be Taj Bradley and Tanner Houck. In just one start this year, Bradley has a sharp 1.50 ERA, but he allowed a 46.7% Statcast hard-contact rate. That could be an incendiary situation for Boston's lineup (.709 team OPS).

Houck has been efficient in 2024, sporting a 55.9% ground-ball rate. From there, he carries a 2.88 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), but he has wavered some lately. Over Houck's past two starts, he's given up seven total runs on a dozen hits.

To this point, the Rays and Red Sox are neck-and-neck in terms of scoring. Tampa Bay has produced 4.09 runs per game while Boston is at 4.29 runs per game.

The modek at numberFire is also in support of over 8.0 runs in Boston tonight. numberFire estimates a Rays-leaning score of 4.85-4.79. Ultimately, that presents a 59.67% winning likelihood for over bettors, per numberFire.

New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins, 7:40 p.m. ET

Under 8.0 Runs (-110)

Staying with the A.L., the New York Yankees (28-15) are set for Game 2 at Target Field against the Minnesota Twins (24-17). Both franchises have authentic postseason aspirations in 2024, so there's a possibility we are looking at a potential playoff matchup.

Behind a strong performance from lefty Carlos Rodon, the Yanks bested the hometown Twins by a score of 5-1 on Tuesday. Flipping over to today, I believe we'll be in store for a similar scoring output.

Given that the projected starters in Minneapolis are Marcus Stroman and Pablo Lopez, I feel best with under 8.0 runs (-110 odds) in this game. Stroman is currently the owner of a 3.80 ERA while Lopez has been masterful behind 11.25 K/9.

New York (.752 team OPS) is certainly a top-10 offensive side this season, and I can respect that. However, Lopez's 2.60 SIERA gives me confidence against anyone in this Bombers' lineup not named Juan Soto.

On Wednesday, a damp sky looms over downtown Minneapolis. Rain is expected just before midnight, and that should result in heavier air at Target Field around game time.

All in all, give me the under here.

St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Angels, 9:07 p.m. ET

Angels Moneyline (+104)

There are those from my generation who refer to this interleague series as the "Albert Pujols rivalry," but regardless, Wednesday's rendition of the St. Louis Cardinals (18-24) at Los Angeles Angels (15-28) is intriguing from a betting standpoint.

Neither franchise has enjoyed much success over the past two seasons. St. Louis is in jeopardy of finishing dead last in the NL Central for the second straight year while the Angels are below .500 again. Additionally, the Halos are forced to watch Shohei Ohtani continue his baseball dominance just up the freeway from Anaheim -- good grief.

Tonight's probable pitchers on the outskirts of Disneyland are Lance Lynn and Griffin Canning.

Lynn is in his second stint with St. Louis after half a decade in the American League. He has not been quite as efficient so far in 2024, showing a career-worst 2.11 K/BB ratio. To compound struggles, the Red Birds have lost in each of Lynn's past three outings.

Canning is also laboring on the hill in 2024. Entering Wednesday, he shows a 4.90 SIERA. However, his looming assignment will be easier than Lynn's. St. Louis currently has a .649 team OPS, which is the second-lowest figure on the Senior Circuit.

Right now, the Angels have scored 4.21 runs per game. For the Cardinals, they sport a dismal scoring clip of only 3.64 runs per game.

The Angels could be in a favorable spot to defeat the Cards at home. The Halos are listed with a +104 moneyline, which translates to a 49% implied probability. According to numberFire's MLB game projections, the Halos yield a 56.37% winning likelihood. ESPN Analytics has that number at 56.1%. Those models show some value on taking the Angels to win.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.