MLB

3 MLB Best Bets for Tuesday 5/28/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
3 MLB Best Bets for Tuesday 5/28/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers, 8:05 p.m. ET

Rangers Moneyline (+104)

To get the day started, I find betting value in an interleague clash between the Arizona Diamondbacks (25-28) and Texas Rangers (25-29) at Globe Life Field. Both teams here have been inconsistent in 2024, but I believe Texas to be in a more advantageous spot.

Tuesday's probable pitchers for the D-backs and Rangers are Brandon Pfaadt and Dane Dunning. Pfaadt has been sharp this season (3.59 xFIP), but Texas' lineup mashes right-handed pitching. Against righties, the Rangers own a .718 OPS.

Dunning is operating with confidence right now. To this point in 2024, he's compiled a 3.69 xFIP and 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Those figures make me eager to wager on the Rangers' moneyline (+104 odds) at home tonight.

Texas' ML listing at FanDuel Sportsbook comes with a 49% implied probability. Still, numberFire is giving the Rangers a 61.15% chance at victory this evening. In that same vein, ESPN Analytics is also offering support for the home team here, giving Texas a 53.7% winning likelihood.

I see lefty sluggers Corey Seager and Josh Smith giving Pfaadt a tough time on the mound tonight. Seager and Smith both hold an OPS north of .810 when facing right-handed pitching.

New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels, 9:38 p.m. ET

Over 9.0 Runs (-104)

For a cross-country clash on the outskirts of Disneyland, see here. The New York Yankees (37-18) and Los Angeles Angels (20-33) will commence a three-game series from "The Big A" on Tuesday. This will be the first head-to-head meeting of 2024 for these American League sides.

With a moderate set total of 9.0 runs here, I am targeting the over (-104 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook). The projected starters in Anaheim are Griffin Canning and lefty Nestor Cortes. To this point in the season, neither hurler has been particularly strong; Canning owns a 5.05 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) while Cortes has been hit for a 41.1% hard-contact rate. Simply, we could see the baseball smacked around tonight.

New York obviously has one of the best lineups in baseball. As a team, the Yanks (2.09 nERD) are ranked tops on numberFire's MLB power rankings. From there, the clean-shaven bunch is sporting a .773 team OPS, which is also the highest clip in MLB. Given Canning's struggles in 2024, I don't see him doing well against a surging Aaron Judge (17 HR) along with lefties Juan Soto (44 RBI) and Alex Verdugo.

Earlier today, my colleague Kenyatta Storin featured this Yankees-Angels game for his NRFI Bets to Target for multiple reasons, but one point centered around the Halos' success against southpaw pitching this season. Right now, the franchise from Orange County has produced a .780 OPS versus lefties -- Cortes will need to hit his spots this evening.

Angel Stadium has logged the seventh-highest Park Factor score (101) over the past three years. With temperatures in the low 70s/upper 60s tonight, carry should be good on batted balls. Let's root for runs in Anaheim.

Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres, 9:40 p.m. ET

Padres -1.5 (+180)

To add in a bit of National League action, the Miami Marlins (19-36) are down in Southern California for Game 2 of 3 against the San Diego Padres (29-28). Both clubs are performing below expectations in 2024, but someone has to win, right?

As an aggressive play, I like Padres -1.5 on Tuesday. The price at FanDuel Sportsbook (+180 odds) warrants a second look at this market. The Friars' listing here carries only a 35.7% implied probability, but I see more value here. numberFire's MLB game projections concur, citing a 42.2% winning likelihood for San Diego on the run line.

With a pitching matchup between Matt Waldron and lefty Jesus Luzardo, I have confidence that the Padres can win by two or more runs. Luzardo (3.69 SIERA) is having a slightly stronger campaign than Waldron (3.95 SIERA), but Miami has been dreadful on offense. Entering Tuesday, the Marlins have output only 3.67 runs per game -- the lowest scoring rate on the Senior Circuit.

San Diego's lineup boasts a .710 OPS right now, which is good enough to fall within MLB's top 10. As for scoring, the Friars are producing 4.39 runs per game. From there, they are 29-28 ATS in 2024. Conversely, the Fish have been the worst National League club on the run line, sporting a 23-32 ATS record. With that, I'll roll with the Padres by two or more runs at Petco Park.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.