MLB

3 MLB Best Bets for Tuesday 5/21/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
3 MLB Best Bets for Tuesday 5/21/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs, 7:40 p.m. ET

Under 11.0 Runs (-110)

There are some mornings in which you simply wake up bold, and that is the case for me on Tuesday. I respect the collective lineups between the Atlanta Braves (27-17) and Chicago Cubs (26-22), but I say they fall short of their massive total this evening. I am on under 11.0 runs (-110 odds) here.

At FanDuel Sportsbook, Braves-Cubs features Tuesday's largest MLB total by more than a run. Transparently, these sides can swing it. Atlanta holds a .735 team OPS (7th) while the Cubbies are at .693 (16th) in that category. Still, this is a night game on the Northside -- although the wind is forecasted to be howling out.

Yes, it will be warm and gusty this evening at Wrigley Field. Staving those conditions on the mound will be Charlie Morton and Javier Assad. Morton is a wily veteran of over 16 MLB campaigns. In 2024, he's been efficient for Atlanta behind a 3.87 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). On the other side, Assad has mostly avoided trouble with a 45.9 GB% and only 0.37 HR/9.

It is worth mentioning that the Cubs and Braves have already met in one series this season (May 13-15). Throughout those three games in Atlanta, Chicago was shut out twice. Additionally, these sides never combined for more than eight total runs in a single contest (5.67 average total).

Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals, 7:40 p.m. ET

Tigers Moneyline (-104)

To sprinkle in some divisional action, the Detroit Tigers (23-24) and Kansas City Royals (30-19) are in the midst of a three-game series at Kauffman Stadium. K.C. was victorious on Monday evening, but for Tuesday's bid, we've see rather narrow moneylines.

FanDuel Sportsbook has this AL Central romp listed as a close competition, showing the Tigers as a -104 ML underdog. In this specific matchup, I am intrigued by Detroit to steal a win on the road.

The projected starters at The K tonight are Casey Mize and Alec Marsh. Both men have been strong in 2024. Mize has a 3.94 SIERA while Marsh is slightly higher at 4.06 SIERA. However, Marsh's current fly-ball rate of 40% (Mize is at 29.3 FB%) could be a detrimental factor tonight; Kansas City will be warm and windy, so expect batted balls to have propelled carry.

These division rivals have already met in four head-to-head games this season, splitting the batch. One of those previous bids also featured Mize as the starter to which he allowed two earned runs over six innings.

numberFire's game projections are also in favor of the Tigers on Tuesday, yielding a 50.5% winning likelihood for Detroit. Also, the MLB power rankings at numberFire are more keen on the Tigers (0.64 nERD) than the Royals (0.32 nERD).

Colorado Rockies at Oakland Athletics, 9:40 p.m. ET

Over 7.5 Runs (-120)

In the East Bay, there is an interesting interleague clash between the Colorado Rockies (15-31) and Oakland Athletics (19-30). Transparently, this is a meeting of last-place teams. Still, I think there is an advantageous opportunity to go over 7.5 total runs (-120 odds).

The probable pitchers for Tuesday's game at the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum are Cal Quantrill and Aaron Brooks. Quantrill currently carries a 4.80 FIP, which is nothing to avoid. Across the way, Brooks -- an MLB and KBO journeyman -- is tagged with a .318 BABIP after just one start this year.

Despite the many embarrassing aspects of the Athletics organization these days, Oakland has actually improved offensively this month. In May, they are scoring 4.78 runs per game, which is noticeably up for their annual clip of 3.67 runs per game. Additionally, the A's boast a .722 team OPS over the past 28 days.

The Rockies will cross the Bay Bridge to Oakland after being swept by the San Francisco Giants. Prior to the series at Oracle Park, Colorado had won seven consecutive contests behind 6.14 runs per game. Even still, they've produced 5.3 runs per game since May 9th.

Back at numberFire, the MLB game projections support over 7.5 runs on Tuesday. For Rox-A's, we see an (Oakland-friendly) estimated score of 4.42-4.18. That equates to 8.6 runs and a 58.7% winning likelihood for over bettors, per nF's model.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.