MLB

3 MLB Best Bets for Tuesday 5/14/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves, 7:20 p.m. ET

Over 8.0 Runs (-105)

For a classic National League showdown, the Chicago Cubs (24-18) and Atlanta Braves (25-13) will meet in Game 2 of their series from Truist Park. On Monday, Atlanta managed to shut out Chicago, winning by a score of 2-0.

In Tuesday's bid, the probable pitchers are Jameson Taillon and lefty Chris Sale. Taillon has been solid in 2024, yielding a 3.51 FIP. Still, he'll have his hands full with a talented Braves lineup. Sale is off to a hot start throughout seven appearances, as he's the owner of a 2.58 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). However, the Cubbies have done well versus southpaw pitching, carrying a .821 team OPS in the split.

Despite last night's offensive outage in unincorporated Cumberland, I believe these sides can combine for more than eight runs on Tuesday. Collectively, Atlanta carries a .328 wOBA, which is the fourth-best mark on the Senior Circuit. Additionally, the Braves have produced 4.89 runs per game.

Yes, Chicago was blanked on Monday, but their lineup is almost fully healthy. Sluggers Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki have returned to the ball club, and I expect them to put pressure on Sale. After all, the Cubs are a team that has scored 4.64 runs per game in 2024.

The model at numberFire supports over 8.0 runs (-105 odds) in Atlanta. numberFire estimates a 5.33-4.29 score in favor of the Braves, which ultimately translates to their model giving the over a 59.39% likelihood of hitting. That presents value against these odds implied probability of only 51.2%.

Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres, 9:40 p.m. ET

Padres -1.5 (-137)

Moving over to the NL West, the Colorado Rockies (13-28) and San Diego Padres (22-22) are set for their sixth head-to-head meeting of the season. Thus far, Colorado has won three of the five previous contests.

The starting pitchers for Tuesday in the Gaslamp Quarter are righties Cal Quantrill and Dylan Cease. Through eight games in 2024, Quantrill shows a rough 5.02 FIP. Conversely, Cease has been stellar, sporting a 3.32 SIERA.

Similar to the other two games this year wherein the Friars defeated the Rox, I see San Diego in favorable positioning to win by multiple runs. The Padres have proven themselves to be a formidable offense, and their 209 total runs scored ranks fifth in the Majors.

S.D. carries a .724 team OPS, which lands them within MLB's top 10. Across the way, Colorado has not fared well in any offensive metrics despite playing its home games at Coors Field.

Back at numberFire, the MLB game projections have San Diego winning on Tuesday by an approximate score of 4.75-3.01. That is on the safer side of Padres -1.5. Considering the Rockies have won only a 13 games outright to this point, I am eager to keep challenging them.

Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners, 9:40 p.m. ET

Over 7.0 Runs (-122)

To add a bit of American League action, there is an interesting clash amongst youthful teams in the Emerald City. On Tuesday, we'll see the Kansas City Royals (25-18) take on the Seattle Mariners (23-19) for the second time this week.

Last night, Seattle protected home turf by defeating Kansas City, 6-2. Transparently, I think we are in line for similar results in the second game at T-Mobile Park.

The projected starters on the mound today are Logan Gilbert and Michael Wacha. Gilbert has been consistent in 2024 for Seattle, holding a 3.40 SIERA. The same cannot be said for Wacha. The journeyman hurler has already surrendered 25 earned runs over eight starts. Simply, Wacha has struggled since joining Kansas City.

The M's have increased their offensive production over the past week. Since last Tuesday, Seattle has scored 5.29 runs per game. Switch-hitting catcher Cal Raleigh has been the perpetuator of that prowess; he boasts a 1.178 OPS with 2 homers, 2 doubles and 8 RBI through that span. Meanwhile, Mariners infielder Josh Rojas (.343 BA) has hit safely in eight of his last nine games.

In the visitor's dugout, the Royals are a respectable offensive side. So far this season, K.C. has churned out 4.59 runs per game. Backstop Salvador Perez (.928 OPS) and infielder Bobby Witt Jr. (.407 wOBA) are both enjoying prolific campaigns, so there is certainly potential for runs in bunches.

With all aspects considered, I think the Royals and M's have more than enough firepower in this matchup to go over a short seven-run total (-122 odds).


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.