MLB

3 MLB Best Bets for Friday 5/10/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
3 MLB Best Bets for Friday 5/10/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET

Over 9.5 Runs (-115)

To follow the trend of overs at Denver's Coors Field, I see value in the Texas Rangers (22-17) at Colorado Rockies (9-28). As it is now, FanDuel Sportsbook has an approachable total of 9.5 runs for this contest.

With Texas and Colorado starting this series on Friday evening, Jon Gray and lefty Austin Gomber are the probable pitchers for the opener. Gray -- a former Rockie -- has been efficient for the Rangers in 2024, showing a 3.48 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). Still, he also yields a .300 BABIP and 38.3% Statcast hard-hit rate to opposing hitters, which could spell trouble at his former home ballpark.

As is common for hurlers on the Rockies, Gomber has experienced woes this season. Currently, the southpaw is allowing a 5.27 FIP. When looking at the right-handed power within Texas' lineup, I believe we'll see a quintessential Coors Field affair.

Sluggers Marcus Semien (.809 OPS/28 RBI) and Adolis Garcia (8.14 OPS/30 RBI) have been mashing for the Rangers. From there, Gomber has allowed a .800 OPS over 112 at-bats versus righties.

numberFire is also predicting rampant scoring in this contest. Per their game projection model, Texas is expected to win by an approximate score of 7.30-5.06. That estimates 12.36 total runs for Friday's bid on Blake Street, which translates to a 71.63% winning likelihood for over bettors here.

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, 9:40 p.m. ET

Over 7.5 Runs (-110)

In this current moment, there doesn't seem to be a run total that is safe when the Los Angeles Dodgers (26-13) are featured. Going against a smaller number of 7.5 total runs, the Dodgers will head south to Petco Park where the San Diego Padres (20-20) await.

Notably, Los Angeles is the top offensive club in MLB. Behind superstars like Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith, the Dodgers boast the best team figures in the following categories: OPS (.807), wOBA (.355), total runs scored (214), runs per game (5.49) and run differential (+74).

In five head-to-head meetings this season (none played in San Diego until tonight), the Padres have actually gotten the better of Los Angeles, 3-2. The Friars are sitting on .500 overall, but their offense demands respect of their own. After the Dodgers and Rangers, San Diego has scored the third-most runs in baseball (198 total/4.95 per game).

The projected starters for Friday in the Gaslamp Quarter are Tyler Glasnow and Michael King. Having taken on L.A. twice already this season, King allowed three and four earned runs in those appearances.

Across the way, Glasnow has been stellar since returning to pitch for his hometown team, carrying a 2.74 SIERA. Still, 75% of his surrendered home runs have come against left-handed bats -- perhaps Jake Cronenworth (26 RBI) and Jurickson Profar (.931 OPS) can barrel up against Glasnow.

To reiterate, seeing a total number as low as 7.5 runs in a game involving the Dodgers makes me want to go over (-110 odds). Dating back to April 21st, the Boys in Blue have produced 6.25 runs per game. Simply, I think Los Angeles and San Diego can combine for eight or more to start their series at picturesque Petco Park.

Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants, 10:15 p.m. ET

Giants -1.5 (+146)

Notably, the Cincinnati Reds (16-21) have dropped eight consecutive games. Dealing with injuries, Cincinnati has lost by more than one run in five -- or 62.5% -- of those contests over the current losing streak. With that, I am eyeing the San Francisco Giants (17-22) on the run line at home.

At FanDuel Sportsbook, Giants -1.5 is presently labeled with lucrative +146 odds. Although San Francisco has not displayed the most prolific offense, I have confidence in this play with staff ace Logan Webb on the mound at Oracle Park.

A durable sinker-baller, Webb has been strong again in 2024. On the year, he holds a 3.47 SIERA while allowing only 0.39 HR/9. He'll be opposed by left-handed pitcher Andrew Abbott on Friday. Abbott has a lifetime 4.27 SIERA throughout 28 MLB starts.

I lean toward San Francisco in this pitching matchup, but it also doesn't help that Cincy has struggled mightily in the batter's box. Right now, the Reds' .211 team BA is the worst in baseball. Their .289 wOBA is also unimpressive. In the month of May, Cincinnati is scoring only 1.86 runs per game.

The Reds' lineup will right the ship eventually, but I don't think that happens Friday versus Webb inside a pitcher's park. Give me San Francisco by two or more runs.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.