3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target Wednesday 4/17/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Bobby Witt Jr. To Hit a Home Run (+300)

Bobby Witt Jr. is absolutely elite and faces a pitcher who is making his MLB debut today.

With 20 mph wind blowing out to left field today, we should see the ball flying when the Chicago White Sox host the Kansas City Royals. Guaranteed Rate Field was already the second-best park for home runs last season, so when we add a ton of wind on top of that, we're cooking with gas today.

Taking a glance at Witt's Baseball Savant page, we can see he is off to a roaring start in 2024. Witt sits in the top 98th percentile or higher in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel percentage, and hard-hit percentage.

He also leads the league in Expected Home Runs (xHR) at 6.8, while having only four actual home runs for a -2.8 differential, which is also the highest in the league. This means he is crushing the ball but just running on the bad side of variance right now.

Witt will be up against Jonathan Cannon, who was just called up by the White Sox. He has just 9.2 innings pitched in Triple-A this season and 48.1 innings pitched in Double-A last year. In Double-A, he allowed 1.49 HR/9 with a low 17.3% strikeout rate.

Cannon doesn't appear to be a dominant pitcher on the mound, and Witt is a far better hitter than Cannon is a pitcher. I'll add Witt To Record an RBI (+100), too.

Pete Alonso To Hit a Home Run (+350)

A 4.21 implied run total for the New York Mets should put them in a good spot to score some runs.

They will be up against Bailey Falter, who struggled last season versus righties with a .450 SLG, .328 wOBA, 4.50 xFIP, 1.49 HR/9, and 36.5% fly-ball rate. It's nothing to be worried about, so it points me to Pete Alonso.

The Polar Bear was elite against left-handed pitchers last season with a 130 wRC+, .358 wOBA, .301 ISO, 47.0% fly-ball rate, 34.8% hard-contact rate, and 24.1% HR/FB ratio.

When Alonso makes contact he can hit the ball a mile, and this is certainly a matchup where he can show that off. I'll add Alonso To Record an RBI (+125), too.

Freddie Freeman To Hit a Home Run (+430)

With their usual 5.34 implied run total, the Los Angeles Dodgers can cross that in a hurry today.

They have a ton of power in their lineup and bring a high offensive expectation to the table, so they're going to be a normal target for home runs throughout the season.

Today, they are up against the Washington Nationals, who will have Jake Irvin on the bump. Last season, Irvin allowed a .496 SLG, .366 wOBA, 5.59 xFIP, 1.98 HR/9, 43.3% fly-ball rate, and 41.0% hard-contact rate to lefty hitters.

That's about as perfect as we can find when it comes to targeting a pitcher who is vulnerable to homers.

This brings me to Freddie Freeman, who crushed righties last season to the tune of a 158 wRC+, .404 wOBA, .218 ISO, 36.8% fly-ball rate, and 37.1% hard-contact rate. Considering how favorable this matchup is, Freeman's odds are worth targeting today.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $150 in Bonus Bets when you place your first bet of at least $5 —win or lose! See the promotions page for more information.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.