3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Wednesday 5/1/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Marcus Semien To Hit a Home Run (+430)

A slate-high 5.06 implied run total for the Texas Rangers is a great spot to look for some offense tonight.

They are at home to take on the Washington Nationals, who will send Trevor Williams to the mound. Williams simply isn't a good pitcher and a favorite of mine to target whenever he's on the slate.

Last season, Williams allowed a .560 SLG, .385 wOBA, 4.59 xFIP, 2.57 HR/9, 40.5% fly-ball rate, and 34.7% hard-contact rate against righty hitters. Oh boy! That's a juicy set of stats to see when we're searching for a long ball, and it brings me to Marcus Semien.

Semien is off to a good start this season against right-handed pitchers with a 116 wRC+, .336 wOBA, .185 ISO, 39.8% fly-ball rate, and 33.7% hard-contact rate. It's a great set of skills all around so I'll add Semien To Record an RBI (+140), too.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. To Hit a Home Run (+420)

While Jazz is a great genre of music, we're looking to Jazz Chisholm, who is a great hitter.

The Miami Marlins might not jump off the page on a daily baseball for offensive props but they have a good matchup against Dakota Hudson, a pitcher we can target for some homers.

So far this season, Hudson has allowed a .450 SLG, .376 wOBA, 6.00 xFIP, 1.74 HR/9, 40.6% fly-ball rate, and 34.4% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. It's all bad across the board for Hudson, so it makes sense to turn to Chisholm tonight.

Last year, Chisholm finished with 126 wRC+, .361 wOBA, .249 ISO, 40.7% fly-ball rate, and 38.6% hard-contact rate against right-handed pitchers. That led to him hitting 17 of his 19 long balls in this split, making it the clear spot to target.

Gunnar Henderson To Hit a Home Run (+370)

The Baltimore Orioles have an immense amount of power in their lineup and will be a regular target for home run props this season.

We start things at the top of their lineup with, whose Baseball Savant page lights up more than a Christmas tree. He's a young player but it's clear he's an elite hitter and worth going to anytime he's in a good matchup.

This season, he comes in with a 160 wRC+, .395 wOBA, .347 ISO, 37.0% fly-ball rate, and a staggering 51.9% hard-contact rate against right-handed pitchers. I love every bit of that and the matchup against Luis Gil is a good one.

This year, Gil has allowed a .300 SLG, 4.28 xFIP, 1.00 HR/9, 58.8% fly-ball rate, 35.3% hard-contact rate, and 10.0% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed hitters. The league average fly-ball rate allowed versus lefty hitters is 37.3% along with an 11.4% HR/FB ratio.

Gil's fly-ball rate is significantly higher than the league average yet his HR/FB rate is better than the league average. He's due for some negative regression and Henderson is an elite hitter who can get that ball rolling -- or flying -- tonight.

I'll add Henderson To Record an RBI (+140), too.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.