MLB

3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Wednesday 4/10/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

MLB Home Run Prop Bets

Ozzie Albies To Hit a Home Run (+500)

The Atlanta Braves have their usual 5.21 implied run total and have a good matchup for some home runs.

They will be up against the New York Mets, who will have Jose Quintana on the bump tonight, a pitcher we can certainly target for the long ball.

Last season, Ozzie Albies crushed lefties with a 174 wRC+, .433 wOBA, .227 ISO, 36.9% fly-ball rate, and 36.0% hard-contact rate. He hits in one of the best lineups in the MLB and is off to a blistering start this season.

As for Quintana last season, he allowed a .357 SLG, 4.38 xFIP, 31.7% fly-ball rate, and only a 5.0% HR/FB ratio. Last year, the league average versus right-handed hitters was 37.3% fly-ball rate and 12.7% HR/FB ratio. Quintana is overperforming compared to the league average and is due for some negative regression in the long run.

As usual, I'll add Albies To Record an RBI (+130).

Rhys Hoskins To Hit a Home Run (+370)

Next up, Rhys Hoskins and the Milwaukee Brewers could get the long ball going tonight.

While Hunter Greene certainly has some gas on the mound, he also gets burned by homers and presents a good matchup to target.

In 2023, Greene allowed a .533 SLG, .377 wOBA, 1.60 HR/9, 40.9% fly-ball rate, and 32.7% hard-contact rate to right-handed hitters. With a great hitter's park in Cincinnati as the backdrop tonight, the home runs could be coming early and often.

As for Hoskins, he was solid against righties in 2022 with a 108 wRC+, .197 ISO, 40.1% fly-ball rate, and 30.9% hard-contact rate. I love a good power hitter versus a fly ball pitcher, and that's what we have here tonight. I'll tack on Hoskins To Record an RBI (+155), too.

Marcus Semien To Hit a Home Run (+390)

Finally, I love this matchup for the Texas Rangers tonight.

They are up against Ross Stripling, who allowed over 2.00 HR/9 to both lefties and righties last season. He's simply not a good pitcher and it puts several Rangers' hitters in a great spot for a homer, but I have my eyes on Marcus Semien.

He brings a good combination of power and the odds we want to see. Last year, Stripling allowed a .488 SLG, 2.01 HR/9, 31.5% hard-contact rate, and 23.5% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed hitters.

Semien was super solid last year with a 126 wRC+, .357 wOBA, .219 ISO, 46.2% fly-ball rate, and 34.1% hard-contact rate against right-handed pitchers. It's not a matter of if, but how many home runs will the Rangers hit tonight? Of course, I'll add Semien To Record an RBI (+130), too.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.