3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Monday 5/20/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Willy Adames To Hit a Home Run (+520)

The Milwaukee Brewers have a solid 4.50 implied run total against the Miami Marlins where we could see the ball flying tonight.

The Marlins will send Ryan Weathers to the mound, a pitcher with some suspect underlying metrics we can target. This season, Weathers has allowed a .428 SLG, 1.45 HR/9, 4.68 xFIP, 33.3% fly-ball rate, and 31.4% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. All six of the homers Weathers has allowed have come via righties, so this is the spot to target.

We turn to Willy Adames, who has solid power with a .200 ISO, 66.7% fly-ball rate, and 42.9% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. It's all good for Adames, who can get that fly-ball rate working against Weathers.

Tyler O'Neill To Hit a Home Run (+430)

The Boston Red Sox will look to keep the offense rolling tonight against Taj Bradley of the Tampa Bay Rays.

Bradley has a smaller sample size this season due to a late start from an injury, so we'll look back to last season for his stats. In 2023, Bradley allowed a .603 SLG, .395 wOBA, 3.06 HR/9, 4.64 xFIP, 45.5% fly-ball rate, and 40.4% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. Yikes. Those are some rough numbers to be sporting, so we'll look to Tyler O'Neill.

This year, O'Neill has a 124 wRC+, .354 wOBA, .268 ISO, 50.0% fly-ball rate, and 25.0% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers. That's the type of power we love to see when targeting a home run prop and O'Neill should be able to put that on display tonight.

Ryan Jeffers To Hit a Home Run (+330)

Finally, the Minnesota Twins are set to take on the Washington Nationals where we have beautiful hitting weather.

Clear skies and the temperature in the mid-70's is a great spot for some offense, so we'll look to Ryan Jeffers for a long ball tonight.

He's having a great season at the plate with a 147 wRC+, .377 wOBA, .250 ISO, 41.14% fly-ball rate, and 34.5% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers.

Jeffers will be up against Mitchell Parker, who is a rookie pitcher for the Nationals with a small 32-inning sample size this season. Parker comes in with a .295 SLG, 0.82 HR/9, 42.2% hard-contact rate, and 34.4% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters.

Jeffers has legit power and I'll side with him over a young and unproven pitcher.

Try FanDuel’s Parlay Boost Builder on May 20th…eligible on ALL sports! Build a 3+ leg parlay, apply your Boost Builder, and get a 15% Profit Boost applied to your wager — with 10% added for each additional leg! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.