3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Monday 4/1/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

MLB Home Run Prop Bets

Nick Castellanos To Hit a Home Run (+540)

The Philadelphia Phillies have a 4.36 implied run total at home as they host the Cincinnati Reds.

The visiting Reds will have Andrew Abbott on the bump today, a pitcher we can look to target for some home runs. Last season was Abbott's first year in the MLB, so we don't have a massive sample size to draw from but it can point us in the right direction.

Last year, Abbott allowed a .343 wOBA, 1.45 HR/9, 4.86 xFIP, 50.6% fly-ball rate, and 37.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. Those are numbers we can certainly work with and it leads me to Nick Castellanos.

In 2023, Castellanos finished with a 148 wRC+, .393 wOBA, .237 ISO, 40.3% fly-ball rate, and 37.2% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. This season is obviously brand new so it's a super small sample size, but Castellanos already has six balls hit with an exit velocity of 90 mph or higher.

He's making solid contact to start the season and now has a matchup to put one over the fence. I'll look to add, Castellanos To Record an RBI (+170), too.

Kyle Tucker To Hit a Home Run (+340)

After a rough opening weekend, the Houston Astros will look to pick up their first win of the season against the Toronto Blue Jays.

They will get their chance against Bowden Francis, who only has a total of 37.0 innings pitched at the MLB level over the past two years. He's a very inexperienced pitcher and has shown to struggle with left-handed hitters, albeit a small sample size.

Over those 37.0 innings, Francis allowed 1.31 HR/9, 4.53 xFIP, 47.5% fly-ball rate, and 30.5% hard-contact rate. While it's a mixed bag of stats, if the fly balls are going to be an issue for Francis, he's worth targeting tonight.

We'll turn to Kyle Tucker, who is an elite left-handed hitter and has put that on display over the course of his career. Last season, he ended with a 132 wRC+, .361 wOBA, .214 ISO, 41.7% fly-ball rate, and 37.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.

That's among the best in the league we can find, so I'll add Tucker To Record an RBI (+120), too.

Marcus Semien To Hit a Home Run (+520)

Another player crushing the ball to start the season is Marcus Semien.

Semien has no home runs after his first three games but has five balls hit with an exit velocity of 98 mph or higher. The results aren't there quite yet for Semien but he is locked in at the plate.

He was solid across the board last season versus right-handed pitchers to the tune of a 126 wRC+, .357 wOBA, .219 ISO, 46.2% fly-ball rate, and 34.1% hard-contact rate.

Tonight, he'll be up against Ryan Pepiot, who has allowed 1.63 HR/9, 51.1% fly-ball rate, and 36.7% hard-contact rate versus righty hitters in his first two years in the MLB.

The Texas Rangers have an elite offense and it should always put Semien in a spot to see good pitches, so I'll add, Semien To Record an RBI (+190), too.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.