3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Friday 5/3/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Justin Turner To Hit a Home Run (+390)

The Toronto Blue Jays have a big 5.03 implied run total and are on the road to take on the Washington Nationals.

The Nats will have Patrick Corbin on the mound, one of my favorite pitchers to see on the slate since we know he's bad against right-handed hitters.

Last season, Corbin allowed a .501 SLG, .363 wOBA, 4.85 xFIP, 1.79 HR/9, 34.9% fly-ball rate, and 34.3% hard-contact rate versus righties.

This brings me to the veteran Justin Turner, who is crushing lefties this year with a 296 wRC+, .595 wOBA, .444 ISO, 56.3% fly-ball rate, and 62.5% hard-contact rate. While those numbers are bound to regress a bit, they are staggering right now, and he is blistering the ball against southpaws.

Turner also has good career success against Corbin with 10 hits in 20 career at-bats, with 3 home runs. That being said, I'll add Turner To Record an RBI (-105), too.

Tyler Stephenson To Hit a Home Run (+430)

Anytime the Cincinnati Reds are at home, we should be looking there for the long ball.

The Great American Ball Park is the best stadium in the league for home runs and we should see the ball flying this weekend since both the Reds and the Baltimore Orioles have plenty of power in their lineups.

For the Orioles, they will have Cole Irvin on the bump, a lefty pitcher who struggled last season versus righties with a .441 SLG, 4.34 XFIP, 1.44 HR/9, 41.3% fly-ball rate, and 35.4% hard-contact rate.

We turn to Tyler Stephenson, who has some insane power numbers this season. Per BaseballSavant, Stephenson is in the 93rd percentile for average exit velocity, the 97th percentile for hard-hit rate, and the 100% percentile for barrel rate.

On top of that, he comes in with a 112 wRC+, .300 ISO, 68.8% fly-ball rate, and 50.0% hard-contact rate versus lefties this season. I love everything about this matchup, so I'll add Stephenson to Record an RBI (+135), too.

Matt Olson To Hit a Home Run (+360)

We'll keep things super simple with the final one for today and that's Matt Olson, the reigning home run king from last season.

Olson is an elite hitter all around and he's going up against Gavin Stone, who is a young and inexperienced pitcher for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Between last season and this one, Stone only has a total of 56.0 innings pitched at the MLB level, it's not a large sample size but it's what we have to go on.

Over that time, Stone has allowed a .510 SLG, .398 wOBA, 5.16 xFIP, 1.13 HR/9, 35.0% fly-ball rate, and 39.0% hard-contact rate versus lefties.

Of course, Olson was elite last year with a 178 wRC+, .439 wOBA, .351 ISO, 44.2% fly-ball rate, and 41.5% hard-contact rate against right-handed pitchers. It's straightforward all around so I'll tack on Olson To Record an RBI (+125), too.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.