MLB

3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Friday 4/5/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

MLB Home Run Prop Bets

Ozzie Albies To Hit a Home Run (+390)

The Atlanta Braves have a slate high 5.46 implied run total today and can hit that in a hurry with some home runs.

The Braves love the long ball and have several hitters in their lineup with power potential, but I have my eyes on Ozzie Albies. With a loaded lineup, he'll always see good pitches to hit, and it puts him in a great spot for a homer versus Tommy Henry.

Last season, Henry allowed a 5.22 xFIP, .405 SLG, 1.08 HR/9, 43.7% fly-ball rate, and 31.1% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters.

When it comes to Albies, he crushed lefties to the tune of a 174 wRC+, .433 wOBA, .227 ISO, 36.9% fly-ball rate, and 36.0% hard-contact rate. Super solid numbers across the board for Albies, so I'll add Albies To Record an RBI (+120), too.

J.T. Realmuto To Hit a Home Run (+480)

With a 4.78 implied run total, the Philadelphia Phillies are another team who can pile up the runs tonight.

That's because they're going up against Patrick Corbin, who is one of my favorite pitchers to target for a home run. Last season, he allowed a .501 SLG, .363 wOBA, 4.85 xFIP, 1.79 HR/9, 34.9% fly-ball rate, and 34.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters.

That's a lovely sight to see when there are so many power hitters in the Phillies' lineup, so we'll turn to J.T. Realmuto. While it's a small sample size, Realmuto leads the Phillies this year in barrels per plate appearance (10.0%).

Last year, Realmuto had a 118 wRC+, .348 wOBA, .263 ISO, 44.7% fly-ball rate, and 35.1% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. The power potential is very clear for Realmuto and the Phillies, so they should be able to plate plenty of runs today. I'll add Realmuto To Record an RBI (+120), too.

Francisco Alvarez To Hit a Home Run (+430)

Finally, with a bit of wind blowing out in Cincinnati, the New York Mets could see the ball flying.

The Great American Ball Park is already an elite park for home runs, so when we see the wind blowing out, it's a fantastic boost for hitters.

Hunter Greene will be on the mound for the Cincinnati Reds and while he certainly has some gas on the mound for strikeouts, he has issues with the long ball.

Last season, Greene allowed a .533 SLG, 1.60 HR/9, 40.9% fly-ball rate, and 32.7% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters.

That leads me to Francisco Alvarez, who showed himself to be a bit of a reverse splits hitter last season, meaning as a righty, he's better against right-handed pitchers than he is against lefties.

Last year, he had a 111 wRC+, .330 wOBA, .257 ISO, 40.6% fly-ball rate, 32.2% hard-contact rate, and 26.0% HR/FB versus righties. With the wind blowing out to center, Alvarez can get the ball in the air and watch it fly. I'll add Alvarez To Record an RBI (+160), too.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.