3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Friday 3/29/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

MLB Home Run Prop Bets

Home runs offer big odds and can be a ton of fun, but it's also a highly variable market. It's important to understand that these props are successful at a lower rate compared to normal player props.

Will Smith To Hit a Home Run (+460)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a 5.20 implied run total and can exceed that number in a hurry.

We're going to see the Dodgers with a high implied run total every day -- this is nothing new given how powerful their lineup is. All of their hitters have the potential to knock one over the fence for a homer, but today we'll turn to Will Smith.

He ended last season with a 116 wRC+, .342 wOBA, .207 ISO, 53.9% fly-ball rate, and 33.3% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. Those are some solid numbers, and he's always going to see good pitches considering the strong hitters around him in the Dodgers' lineup.

Smith will be up against Zack Thompson, a pitcher who struggled last season versus right-handed hitters with a 3.80 xFIP, 1.32 HR/9, 41.6% hard-contact rate, and 36.0% fly-ball rate allowed. There's some clear upside for the Dodgers' righties tonight, so I'll add Smith To Record an RBI (+120), too.

Jake Burger To Hit a Home Run (+420)

With big power, Jake Burger is a nice target for a home run tonight.

When Burger is facing a shaky left-handed pitcher, he's always going to be on my radar given the power upside he has. Last year, Burger had a 142 wRC+, .380 wOBA, .323 ISO, 48.9% fly-ball rate, 45.6% hard-contact rate, and 25.0% HR/FB ratio versus lefties.

That is some legit power and he put that on display a bit yesterday when he hit three balls with exit velocities over 100 mph. Of course, it's just one game, but it's good to see he is locked in to start the season.

Tonight, he's up against Martin Perez, who finished last season with a 5.20 xFIP, .346 wOBA, 1.41 HR/9, 38.4% fly-ball rate, and 30.8% hard-contact rate allowed to right-handed hitters. The hard-contact rate is a bit lower than I'd like to see from a pitcher, but Burger has good power overall. Add Burger To Record an RBI (+140).

Cal Raleigh To Hit a Home Run (+420)

A strong matchup for power puts Cal Raleigh in a good spot tonight.

The Seattle Mariners are at home to take on Nick Pivetta. Pivetta certainly has high strikeout potential, but he also struggles with the long ball.

Last season, Pivetta had a 32.0% strikeout rate versus lefties, but also allowed 2.48 HR/9, .333 wOBA, 42.3% fly-ball rate, 38.5% hard-contact rate, and 26.7% HR/FB ratio. If Pivetta can't strike them out, there's a chance the ball is going a long way off the bat.

Raleigh had the power last year with a 119 wRC+, .337 wOBA, .240 ISO, 49.1% fly-ball rate, 34.5% hard-contact rate, and 18.4% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers. The potential is clearly there for Raleigh and some of the Mariners' righties, so I'll add, Raleigh To Record an RBI (+170), too.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.