3 Dark Horse Picks to Win the 2025 French Open

While tennis majors are typically dominated by a handful of names, the door could be open for someone new to break through at this year's French Open.

The men's side is shaking out to be a two-horse race between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, but if one or even both fail to make the final, it will be a golden opportunity for the rest of the field. Although Alcaraz and Sinner seem poised to dominate the sport for years to come, it's easy to forget that to this point they still have "just" one French Open title between the two of them.

We tend to see more surprise champions from the women's draw, but Iga Swiatek has had a stranglehold on this event, winning four of the past five French Opens. That being said, Iga has looked far from invincible this season and recently even dropped to fifth in the rankings. This might be the best chance yet for someone to dethrone the Queen of Clay.

With all this in mind, which men and women could make surprise runs to a French Open title this year? You can also check out our 2025 French Open men's bracket and women's bracket, both available as free printable downloads at FanDuel Research.

Darkhorses Who Could Win the 2025 French Open

Qinwen Zheng to Win (+2000)

As these odds show, Qinwen Zheng is flying under the radar a bit due to a rather ho-hum season thus far. She enters Roland Garros with just a 13-8 record in 2025, and she had a disappointing showing in this year's first major, failing to advance past the second round of the Australian Open after being a finalist in 2025.

But for a longer shot to come through, they need to have a high ceiling, and we certainly saw that from Zheng in 2024. In addition to finishing runner-up at the Australian Open, she most notably upset Swiatek at the Paris Olympics semifinals and would go on to win a gold medal on this very surface. Keep in mind that Swiatek entered that match with a 26-1 clay record for the year, so this was a shocking result at the time.

We might finally be seeing signs of that versions of Zheng just ahead of this event, too. Despite her underwhelming results during this campaign, she most recently reached the semifinals in Rome, which included defeating French Open favorite Aryna Sabalenka. While she would ultimately lose to Coco Gauff -- another top contender -- the American was pushed to the brink in a 7-6(3), 4-6, 7-6(4) match that would go over three and a half hours.

According to Tennis Abstract, Zheng actually has the WTA Tour's fourth-best clay Elo rating, trailing slightly behind Gauff and coming out ahead of Mirra Andreeva and Jasmine Paolini. All three of those players have shorter odds to win the tournament than Zheng, with Gauff (+500) and Andreeva (+550) having especially shorter marks.

With that in mind, Zheng looks like an appealing value pick to win this year's event.

Casper Ruud to Win (+2200)

It says something that Casper Ruud was a French Open finalist in both 2022 and 2023 and reached the semifinals a year ago, yet this is where he's priced. Unfortunately, the fact is he's gone 1-13 against the trio of Alcaraz, Sinner, and Novak Djokovic, making it harder to see him get over the hump.

However, this is far and away Ruud's best surface -- 12 of his 13 titles have come on clay -- and he just won his first career Masters 1000 title a couple of weeks ago in Madrid.

While Ruud took a 6-0, 6-1 beating from Sinner in Rome just before this French Open, the two are on opposite sides of the draw, so he wouldn't face him until the final. Both Djokovic and Alexander Zverev are in Sinner's half, as well, so Ruud isn't a lock to face those threats, either.

Of course, with all that being said, Ruud is in the same quarter as Alcaraz, which obviously isn't ideal. However, that one win noted earlier did come against the Spaniard in last year's ATP Finals in November, and while that was on hard courts, it could still give the Norwegian a confidence boost.

Ruud's strong track record on this surface and at this event can't be completely overlooked, and while he likely needs to luck into avoiding Sinner -- not a completely unrealistic possibility considering Jannik only just returned from his three-month doping suspension -- this looks like solid value.

Elina Svitolina to Win (+3800)

Elina Svitolina is seventh in Tennis Abstract's clay Elo ratings, coming in just behind Paolini and ahead of both Madison Keys and Elena Rybakina. However, it's Svitolina who has the longest odds to win of that group, and she's significantly behind Paolini specifically (+1600).

Admittedly, she's in a difficult section of the draw, as her quarter features not only Swiatek, Paolini, and Rybakina but also Jelena Ostapenko and Marta Kostyuk. All five of those potential opponents are inside the top 16 in clay Elo rating.

However, the good news is Svitolina should avoid most of those players, as she wouldn't see Swiatek, Rybakina, Ostapenko, or Kostyuk until the quarterfinals. Of particular note is the fact that Ostapenko and Swiatek could face each other in the fourth round, and Iga is inexplicably 0-6 against Jelena. While Swiatek has looked from far from invincible this season, Svitolina would probably be happy to dodge the four-time French Open winner.

Svitolina is likely to face an in-form Paolini in the fourth round, though, so it's not like she'll avoid all the dangers of her quarter. However, Svitolina did defeat Paolini in this year's Australian Open -- their only career meeting -- so she's capable of getting past the 2024 French Open runner-up.

Should Svitolina emerge from her section, she could potentially see Sabalenka in the semis and Gauff in the final, but there's no guarantee we see the chalk advance from every section.

While Svitolina has never made a major final, she's quite familiar with deep runs at Grand Slams as a three-time semifinalist and nine-time quarterfinalist. She also comes in showing good form after going 12-2 this clay season, which includes a title at Rouen and semifinals appearance in Madrid.

We just saw Keys win her first Grand Slam at the Australian Open at age 29, so it isn't outlandish to think a longtime veteran like the 30-year-old Svitolina can't do the same. While it might take a little luck, such as Sabalenka getting upset in her quarter, this is a viable price to take a swing.

Backing Svitolina to make the semifinals (+700) is another potential value, as well.

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