3 Best NFL Bets and Player Props for Chargers at Patriots, Week 17

Saturday NFL action kicks off at 1 p.m. ET when the Los Angeles Chargers take on the New England Patriots.

Though New England has long since been eliminated from postseason contention, the Chargers still need a win to clinch a playoff berth.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, let's dive into the Chargers-Patriots odds, best bets, and player props for Saturday's game.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Chargers at Patriots Betting Picks

Over 43.5 Total Points (-102)

Does it feel great backing the over in a game featuring Jim Harbaugh and the New England Patriots?

No.

Is it the right way to approach this game?

I think so.

Though the Pats and Chargers have something of a reputation for low-scoring, grind-it-out affairs, that hasn't been the case over the second half of the season. Dating back to Week 11, New England ranks 30th in schedule-adjusted defense, according to numberFire. LA is just 26th.

But they've both been passable offensively during this stretch, with the Chargers sitting at 14th in schedule-adjusted offense and the Patriots clocking in at 19th.

That's come with some encouraging offensive tendencies for an over, too.

Across the last six weeks, the Patriots rank fifth in Brandon Gdula's adjusted pace metric. The Chargers are down at 22nd, but they've at least been letting Justin Herbert cook. In that same sample, LA is ninth in raw pass rate and seventh in pass rate over expectation (PROE).

As a result, both sides have gone over this total with some regularity of late. Four of the Chargers' last six games have cleared 44 points while Pats games have gone over this mark five weeks in a row.

There is a slight chance of rain on Saturday, and temperatures aren't expected to surpass 40 degrees. But the wind looks minimal (less than 5 MPH), so I don't foresee weather being too much of a factor.

Drake Maye Over 221.5 Passing Yards (-113)

I'm expecting a good amount of scoring on Saturday afternoon, meaning both quarterbacks should be in for solid outings. Given how well Drake Maye played on the road in Buffalo last week, we can turn to him to go over 221.5 passing yards against the Chargers.

Maye enters his 11th career start averaging 234.9 passing yards across the nine games he didn't depart early with injury. He's averaged 33.6 pass attempts and 7.0 yards per attempt in those starts, with the Pats passing at an above average rate over expectation (-0.7% PROE). They're sixth in adjusted pace during those games, showing their willingness to load up Maye with passing volume.

That's helped him exceed 221.5 passing yards in six of nine full starts, including four of the last five.

The Chargers have a solid pass defense. They're 15th in numberFire's schedule-adjusted pass defense over the last eight weeks and 13th in EPA per drop back allowed on the year. In terms of raw volume, LA is allowing 213.8 passing yards per game -- 17th in the NFL.

But Maye has fared well even against better secondaries. He's faced four defenses that rank in the top 20 by EPA per drop back allowed. He cleared 221.5 passing yards in three of those four games, averaging 221.8 per contest.

With the Patriots headed into the weekend as 4.5-point 'dogs, we'll likely see Maye drop back early and often if New England falls behind. With Maye seeing a good-not-great LA pass defense, that puts him in prime position to go over 221.5 passing yards.

Quentin Johnston 40+ Receiving Yards (+104)

Quentin Johnston tends to be a boom-or-bust receiving option for the Chargers, and last week we saw one of the lower outcomes in his range. He managed just 18 yards off 3 receptions -- the third time in five games he's failed to crack 20 receiving yards. But he totaled 45 and 48 yards the two weeks prior, so there's at least some established upside. In a good matchup against New England, Johnston is positioned well to bounce back and record 40-plus receiving yards.

Johnston has appeared in 13 games and averaged 36.7 yards per game this season. But he's gone for at least 40 yards six times, and his ability to command targets down the field (11.5-yard average depth of target [aDOT] and 2.3 downfield targets per game) makes his 40-yard line at +104 odds more appealing than his standard 36.5-yard prop.

The Patriots are the kind of matchup where Johnston can make good on that downfield work. New England is down to 31st in schedule-adjusted pass defense, and they've had trouble containing wide receivers. They've surrendered the sixth-highest target rate to opposing wideouts, allowing the seventh-most yards per route run and 11th-highest aDOT to the position.

The 2023 first-round pick has further shown a knack for producing against bad secondaries. Against the three bottom-10 pass defenses the Bolts have faced, Johnston has notched 45, 51, and 38 receiving yards. He had five receptions in two of those games.

This isn't an especially high bar to climb for LA's primary deep target, especially in such a plus matchup. Johnston is set up well to record 40-plus receiving yards on Saturday.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.