3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Thursday 6/26/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Wenceel Perez to Hit a Home Run (+600)

Jeffrey Springs is set to draw another start for the Athletics on Thursday, and while he benefits from not having to pitch at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park today, he's still susceptible to giving up homers. Besides being in just the 33rd percentile in strikeout rate (19.5%) and 7th percentile in groundball rate (31.1%), Springs is permitting 1.53 HR/9 and a 47.6% flyball rate to right-handed batters.

Although it's an extremely limited sample of 23 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this season, Wenceel Perez has logged an impressive .581 wOBA, 290 wRC+, .636 ISO, and 66.7% flyball rate in that split. On top of that, 9 of Perez's last 14 batted balls that have been put in play have been hit at 95-plus MPH.

Since the start of last season, Perez is registering a .222 ISO or better and 10.7% barrel rate or better versus Springs' two primary pitches (four-seam fastball and changeup) against right-handed sluggers. Once Springs exits Thursday's contest, Perez will also have a chance to go deep against an Athletics bullpen that has the sixth-worst HR/9 (1.43) and third-worst barrel rate (11.2%) over the last 30 days.

Seiya Suzuki to Hit a Home Run (+420)

Andre Pallante can sometimes be a risky pitcher to target in the home run market due to his 99th percentile groundball rate (64.9%), but warm weather and a matchup versus the Chicago Cubs could spell disaster for the soft-tossing righty.

Aside from temperatures approaching 100 degrees with winds blowing out to center at Busch Stadium on Thursday, Pallante is giving up a .367 wOBA, 1.60 WHIP, and 1.40 HR/9 to right-handed hitters this season (compared to a .276 wOBA, 1.05 WHIP, and 1.03 HR/9 to left-handed hitters).

Taking that into account, Seiya Suzuki is an enticing right-handed batter to have on our radar in this matchup. On the season, Suzuki is posting a .331 wOBA, .253 ISO, and 45.1% flyball rate versus right-handed pitchers.

Along with Suzuki earning the 18th-best ISO (.320) across the last 14 days, he's tallying the 11th-highest average exit velocity (94.1 MPH), 4th-best barrel rate (22.2%), and 9th-best hard-hit rate (58.3%) during that span. Also, five of Suzuki's last seven batted balls have an exit velocity of at least 98 MPH, so there's plenty to like ahead of a meeting with Pallante and the St. Louis Cardinals.

Will Smith to Hit a Home Run (+320)

Despite Will Smith going 0-for-12 with 4 Ks against Austin Gomber -- the projected starter for the Colorado Rockies on Thursday -- for his career, he's producing fantastic metrics versus southpaws in 2025. At the moment, Smith is notching a stellar .504 wOBA, 231 wRC+, .298 ISO, and 45.9% flyball rate when facing left-handed pitching this season.

In addition to winds blowing from right to left field at Coors Field on Thursday, Smith is accruing a .245 ISO or better and 10.0% barrel rate or better against Gomber's two primary pitches (four-seam fastball and changeup) versus righties.

Even though Gomber has only made 2 starts and logged 9.2 innings this year, he's coughing up a .498 wOBA, 3.68 HR/9, and 59.4% flyball rate to right-handed hitters after allowing a .351 wOBA, 1.53 HR/9, and 41.0% flyball rate in that split a season ago.

Given the fact that 10 of Smith's last 15 batted balls that have been put in play have clocked in at 98-plus MPH, he's in a premier spot to hit one deep in Thursday's clash against the Rockies.

With Gomber failing to pitch into the sixth inning in each of his first two starts this season, it's worth noting that Colorado's relievers have produced the 4th-worst HR/9 (1.74), 10th-worst barrel rate (9.3%), and 6th-worst hard-hit rate (43.2%) across the last 14 days of action.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.