3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Thursday 5/29/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Lawrence Butler to Hit a Home Run (+430)

At first glance, Jose Berrios has produced reverse splits in the power category this season, permitting 1.82 HR/9 and a 48.2% flyball rate to righties (compared to 1.05 HR/9 and a 32.4% flyball rate to lefties). However, Berrios is struggling against left-handed hitters more at home, allowing a .359 wOBA, 1.67 WHIP, and 1.33 HR/9 in that split, while right-handed hitters are tallying a .353 wOBA, 1.19 WHIP, and 1.26 HR/9 when facing Berrios at Rogers Centre.

Taking that into account, Lawrence Butler stands out as a left-handed batter to target from the Athletics in this matchup. Entering Thursday's contest, Butler is sporting a formidable .360 wOBA, 135 wRC+, and .210 ISO versus right-handed pitching in 2025.

Before going 0-for-4 in Wednesday's outing against the Houston Astros, Butler had gone 14-for-36 with 6 doubles, 1 triple, and 2 homers across his previous nine games. Despite Butler struggling with strikeouts at times, those issues should be mitigated versus Berrios, who is in the 41st percentile in strikeout rate (20.6%) and 11th percentile in barrel rate (12.3%).

Jeremy Pena to Hit a Home Run (+700)

Shane Baz is a hard-throwing righty who resides in the 87th percentile in fastball velocity (96.7 MPH), but similar to other pitchers who excel at lighting up the radar gun, he tends to surrender hard contact often. Over his first 10 starts and 54.2 innings pitched this season, Baz is sitting in the 15th percentile in barrel rate (11.5%) and 31st percentile in hard-hit rate (43.6%).

Additionally, Baz is a reverse-splits starter, coughing up a .362 wOBA, 1.42 WHIP, and 1.99 HR/9 versus right-handed batters (compared to a .328 wOBA, 1.35 WHIP, and 1.17 HR/9 versus left-handed batters). Those splits don't bode well for Baz ahead of a date with the Astros, who could deploy seven or eight right-handed hitters in Thursday's contest, beginning with Jeremy Pena out of the leadoff spot.

Although Pena is generating just a .139 ISO against right-handed hurlers to begin the campaign, this is more of a matchup play with Baz giving up at least one homer in eight of his last nine starts. Baz has thrown a four-seam fastball 45.7% of the time versus right-handed hitters this season, and Pena is logging a .510 wOBA and .359 ISO against right-handed four-seam fastballs in 2025, making him a nice value option in this game.

James Wood to Hit a Home Run (+400)

James Wood won't stop sending baseballs into orbit, registering a home run in three of his last four contests, including in each of the first two games against the Seattle Mariners. Amid his recent power surge, Wood has the eighth-best wOBA (.407), ninth-best wRC+ (162), eighth-best ISO (.282), and is tied for the sixth-most homers (15) in the majors.

While it can be difficult for players to maintain a streak of outings where they hit a dinger, I like Wood's chances to go yard again on Thursday with Emerson Hancock on the mound for the Mariners. Despite Hancock doing a better job of limiting hard contact than he did a season ago, he's still in the 8th percentile in xERA (5.60) and is allowing 2.65 HR/9 to lefties through his first eight starts in 2025.

Upon looking at Hancock's recent outings, 11 of the last 14 batted balls against him clock in at 91-plus MPH, which isn't ideal versus Wood's 96th percentile average exit velocity (94.1 MPH), 96th percentile barrel rate (18.6%), and 99th percentile hard-hit rate (59.3%). Since the start of last season, Wood is recording a .200 ISO or better and .384 wOBA or better against Hancock's three primary pitches versus left-handed sluggers (changeup, sinker, and four-seam fastball).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.