3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Monday 5/5/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Freddie Freeman to Hit a Home Run (+480)

In my Same Game Parlay piece for Monday's series opener between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Miami Marlins, I listed Freddie Freeman to record an RBI as one of the legs, and I'll take it a step further by saying he can drive in a run via the long ball. Sandy Alcantara is slated to make his seventh start of the 2025 season, and the former NL Cy Young winner has looked out of sorts on the mound.

Across his first 6 starts and 26.0 innings pitched, Alcantara is residing in the 7th percentile in xERA (6.37), 18th percentile in average exit velocity (91.0 MPH), 13th percentile in strikeout rate (15.8%), 27th percentile in barrel rate (10.7%), and 20th percentile in hard-hit rate (46.4%). Alcantara is also permitting a .378 wOBA, 2.08 HR/9, and 31.7% flyball rate against left-handed batters (compared to a .316 wOBA, 0.69 HR/9, and 18.6% flyball rate against right-handed batters) this season.

As for Freeman, he's had no issues dealing damage to right-handed hurlers, posting an elite .525 wOBA, 241 wRC+, and .407 ISO in that split. Along with Freeman having two dingers over his last four outings, he should have success versus a Miami bullpen that has the seventh-worst HR/9 (1.16) and seventh-highest flyball rate (40.0%).

Brandon Nimmo to Hit a Home Run (+520)

Brandon Nimmo has launched three homers across his last six contests for the New York Mets, and his power metrics in recent weeks make him an enticing player to target in the home run market on Monday. Over the last two weeks, Nimmo is sporting the fourth-highest average exit velocity (96.4 MPH) and third-best hard-hit rate (67.6%) in all of baseball.

Meanwhile, Ryne Nelson is expected to make his first start of the 2025 campaign for the Arizona Diamondbacks after making his first seven appearances this season out of the bullpen. Despite Nelson earning a 2.61 SIERA and 27.4% strikeout rate as a reliever so far, we've seen him give up plenty of hard contact in recent years, and he's still in 7th percentile in average exit velocity (92.2 MPH) and 18th percentile in hard-hit rate (46.9%) this year.

When looking at Nimmo's splits, the left-handed outfielder for the Mets has hit all seven of his dingers away from Citi Field, notching a .385 wOBA, 145 wRC+, and .308 ISO in road games (compared to a .162 wOBA, 4 wRC+, and .041 ISO in home games). Aside from the fact that Nimmo will be playing on the visiting team in this series, Arizona's bullpen is dealing with a variety of injuries, and they are logging the sixth-worst HR/9 in MLB (1.22).

Jorge Polanco to Hit a Home Run (+430)

After blasting 33 homers in 2021 with the Minnesota Twins, Jorge Polanco has gone three straight years hitting fewer than 17 long balls, but the veteran infielder is having a resurgence in his sophomore campaign with the Seattle Mariners. Although it's early, Polanco has already hit nine home runs this season, and all nine of those homers have come when the switch-hitter has faced a right-handed pitcher.

Additionally, Polanco is in the 100th percentile in xSLG (.720), 96th percentile in barrel rate (20.0%), 94th percentile in hard-hit rate (55.7%), and 98th percentile in launch angle sweet-spot rate (47.1%). Those cartoon-like numbers certainly put Polanco on my radar ahead of a matchup versus Luis Severino and the Athletics in a hitter-friendly environment at Sutter Health Park.

Even though Severino has coughed up only four homers and is tallying a formidable 0.82 HR/9 so far, all four of his home runs allowed have occurred at home. The temperatures are expected to be in the low 80s at first pitch and winds are blowing in from left and a bit from right to left at Sutter Health Park, providing a boost in the dinger department.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.