3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Wednesday 4/16/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies Over 4.5 Runs (+124)

With temperatures in the 50s and winds blowing across Citizens Bank Park tonight, this won't be the best hitting environment for the Philadelphia Phillies, but with how San Francisco Giants left-hander Robbie Ray has begun the season, the Phillies should still be able to put up a good chunk of runs.

Over three 2025 starts, Ray has posted a 2.93 ERA that looks rather suspect when we check under the hood. The southpaw has been aided by an unsustainable .167 BABIP, and that's further shown by him owning a bloated 6.06 xERA and 20.5% barrel rate allowed. A 21.0% strikeout rate paired with a 16.1% walk rate further show that Ray has been far from dominant.

Dating back to last season, Philadelphia's active roster is inside the top 10 in both wRC+ (119) and ISO (.171) versus left-handers. Even though Ray will have a lefty-lefty matchup against Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, both sluggers have strong track records versus southpaws and have consistently produced double-digit walk rates that can take advantage of Ray's control issues.

Finally, in addition to coughing up barrels left and right, Ray is a fly-ball pitcher (59.0% fly-ball rate in 2025), and that could get him in trouble at a venue that's among the five easiest to hit a home run, per Baseball Savent's park factors. Backing the Phillies to score 5+ runs at plus money looks like a solid value.

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays

Red Sox Over 4.5 Runs (+108)

This is one of the slate's warmer matchups with temperatures in the 70s at Steinbrenner Field, so the ball should carry better than a lot of other games on Wednesday. This is also reflected by this game owning the day's highest total (9.5).

While we should expect both offenses to produce, we'll dial in on the Boston Red Sox as another team to consider at plus odds to score 5+ runs.

For one thing, this is a potent Boston lineup even with Alex Bregman out on paternity leave. The Red Sox have been around league average versus righties in 2025 due to some players scuffling early, but if we include last season, their active roster actually owns the second-best wRC+ (119) and third-best ISO (.195) versus right-handers.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay Rays righty Zack Littell has been roughed up in two of his three starts, leading to a lackluster 6.88 ERA. Although a 4.56 xERA suggests he hasn't been quite as bad as that ERA, he's been below average in all of strikeout rate (20.0%), hard-hit rate (45.3%), and barrel rate (11.3%).

Boston is in the midst of an up-and-down stretch, but this looks like the right spot for their bats to have a productive night.

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers

Angels -1.5 (+122)

Anyone who's played MLB DFS is undoubtedly familiar with left-hander Patrick Corbin, who's been the frequent punching bag for stacks over the years. Going all the way back to 2020, Corbin has recorded a 5.63 ERA while giving up 1.6 HR/9 over 748 2/3 innings.

Despite getting pummeled for so long, Corbin is somehow still getting starts in 2025, and we might as well take advantage on the betting side, as well. The southpaw's first 2025 start went about as well as expected, giving up three earned runs (one home run) over four innings to the Chicago Cubs while producing zero strikeouts.

The Los Angeles Angels are a middle-of-the-pack offense against lefties since the start of 2024, but having a healthy Mike Trout gives them a boost, and they should be able to counter Corbin with perhaps an entire lineup of right-handed batters.

The Angels have righty Jose Soriano taking the mound, which could further help them to a win. The Texas Rangers are off to a slow start offensively, whereas Sorinao has performed well through three outings with a 3.30 xERA, 24.3% strikeout rate, and 65.2% ground-ball rate.

Due to several factors working in Los Angeles' favor, seeing if they can win by two or more runs at plus money is intriguing.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.