3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Tuesday 6/17/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers

Pirates Under 3.5 Runs (-132)

The Pittsburgh Pirates are scoring only 3.18 runs per game (the fewest) and have totaled two or fewer runs in seven of the last nine games. Over 11 starts, Casey Mize has allowed two or fewer runs in nine appearances. With the Detroit Tigers putting a quality starter on the mound tonight, the Pirates will likely struggle yet again.

Mize's numbers check out with a 2.95 ERA, 3.21 xERA, 3.98 SIERA, and 4.02 xFIP. One of Pittsburgh's few strengths is touting the 10th-highest walk rate. However, Mize is in the 68th percentile of walk percentage allowed.

The Pirates are also in the bottom six of runs above average against four of Mize's five most-used pitches. The only exception is ranking 16th against splitters, but the bottom half is still nothing to write home about.

Mize is giving up hard contact by ranking in the 36th percentile of barrel rate allowed while holding 1.33 HR/9. However, Pittsburgh ranks last in slugging percentage, second-to-last in home run rate, and have the ninth-lowest hard-hit rate.

Ultimately, don't expect much run production from the Pirates. Along with a good matchup for Mize, Detroit's bullpen is in the top half for the lowest ERA and SIERA.

Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees

Yankees Over 5.5 Runs (-104)

A 5.5-run total is lofty, especially when the New York Yankees have logged only 1.0 runs per game over the last five. However, the Yankees have averaged 5.21 runs per game across the season (third-most) while touting the fourth-highest batting average and second-highest SLG.

The Los Angeles Angels are far from the most daunting teams when it comes to limiting run production, giving up 4.99 runs per game (seventh-most), the third-highest batting average, and fourth-highest SLG. Tonight's starter, Kyle Hendricks, keeps the vulnerable theme going with a 5.20 ERA, 4.85 SIERA, and 4.96 xFIP.

Hendricks has 1.52 HR/9 while sitting in the 33rd percentile of barrel percentage allowed. Of course, New York is well equipped to expose this weakness with the second-highest SLG and highest isolated power and home run percentage.

The Halos' hurler mostly leans on a changeup (37.3%) and sinker (36.2%), and the Yankees rake against both pitches with the most runs above average against changeups and third-highest mark when seeing sinkers. L.A. has a weak bullpen, too, carrying the third-highest ERA and sixth-highest SIERA. New York is in a position to snap its cold streak on Tuesday.

Cleveland Guardians at San Francisco Giants

Guardians Under 3.5 Runs (-146)

Robbie Ray was riding high in 2021, winning his first Cy Young. He struggled since with only eight total starts over the 2023 and 2024 seasons thanks to Tommy John surgery. Ray has enjoyed a comeback in 2025, though, sporting a 2.55 ERA, 3.58 SIERA, and 3.59 xFIP.

The San Francisco Giants have -176 odds to make the playoffs in large part thanks to Ray. Since May, Ray has held opponents to two or fewer runs in seven of eight starts. The Cleveland Guardians have posted only 3.86 runs per game (sixth-fewest) and hold the sixth-lowest batting average.

Ray leans on a four-seam fastball (52.7%) and slider (23.6%). The Guards have the sixth-fewest runs above average against both pitches, and their 16th-highest home run percentage should be kept in check by Ray's 0.66 HR/9.

Rounding out our under pick, San Francisco's bullpen can hold its own with the lowest ERA in MLB. After posting three or fewer runs in four of the last five, Cleveland could be in store for another frustrating night.

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Which bets stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.