3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Thursday 5/29/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays

Athletics ML (+138)

Athletics lefty Jacob Lopez has split time between the big leagues and Triple-A as both a starter and reliever this season, but he's coming off an impressive start versus the Philadelphia Phillies where he racked up eight strikeouts in seven innings while allowing only one earned run.

Although it's fair to wonder if he can have more performances like that, he's posted some promising numbers across 14 innings, including a 2.86 xERA and 25.8% strikeout rate. The K rate might not entirely be a fluke, too, as he's also put up a 36.5% clip across his 27 Triple-A innings this year.

Not all his metrics are quite as positive, though, considering he also carries a 12.1% walk rate and a less encouraging 4.29 SIERA. Still, an ERA in the 4.00 range would put him in the neighborhood of Toronto Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios on the other side.

Berrios has produced mixed metrics at best with a 4.33 SIERA, 20.6% strikeout rate, and 9.6% walk rate, and a 5.11 xERA reflects the good chunk of loud contact he's given up.

In other words, this pitching matchup might be closer to a wash than one might expect, and it's possible the A's might even have an edge.

The Athletics have been the better offense this season, as well, as they're averaging 4.22 runs per game while Toronto is averaging 3.83. At this price, the A's look like a nice value to win this one.

Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros

First 5 Innings Total Runs: Over 4.5 (-108)

Starting pitchers Shane Baz and Ryan Gusto have both produced meh results, and we could see that continue on Thursday.

Baz is likely to face nearly an entire lineup of righties from the Houston Astros, and while that would normally seem like a good thing for the Tampa Bay Rays right-hander, he's shown reverse splits this season. In same-handed matchups, he's recorded a 4.74 xFIP, 17.3% strikeout rate, and 11.3% walk rate while giving up 1.99 HR/9.

Gusto has been deployed as both a starter and reliever for the Astros, and he profiles as a below-average arm. Over 35 1/3 innings, the right-hander has logged a 4.49 xERA, 23.8% strikeout rate, 10.0% walk rate, and 35.2% ground-ball rate. All six of the home runs he's allowed have come off lefties, which the platoon-heavy Rays figure to exploit, as well.

While these are middle-of-the-pack lineups, both teams should be able to plate some runs in the early innings. However, given that Houston's bullpen has been one of the league's best, additional runs could be harder to come by in the latter stages, so sticking with the total for the first five innings looks like the ideal way to go.

Washington Nationals at Seattle Mariners

First 5 Innings Run Line: Nationals -0.5 (+114)

With southpaw MacKenzie Gore taking the mound, it's easy to get behind the Washington Nationals against the Seattle Mariners.

Gore leads all qualified starters in strikeout rate (36.2%), and he has top-three marks in both xFIP (2.42) and SIERA (2.51). A 3.51 xERA shows he's allowing more hard contact than we would like, but it's hard to complain about anyone getting punchouts in bunches like this, particularly while carrying a reasonable 8.2% walk rate.

The Mariners will have right-hander Emerson Hancock on the mound, and he's been roughed up over eight starts, putting up a 5.60 xERA, 4.45 SIERA, and 15.7% strikeout rate. While he's shown some positives in same-handed matchups with a 4.0% walk rate and 51.2% ground-ball rate, those splits won't help him against what should be a full lineup of Nats batting left-handed.

Seattle's active roster has a 120 wRC+ versus southpaws, which might not be ideal for Gore, but they also carry the sixth-highest K rate in that split (25.7%). Ultimately, the starting pitching advantage should allow the Nats to have the lead after five frames.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.