3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Monday 7/7/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Pirates at Royals

First 5 Innings Under 4.5 Runs (-102)

Two of the worst offenses in Major League Baseball will meet up this evening, which puts me on the under through the first five innings.

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals are averaging 3.41 and 3.34 runs per game, respectively, good for the second-lowest and lowest marks in the league. Pittsburgh is netting an MLB-worst 2.86 runs on the road while Kansas City is netting an MLB-worst 2.84 runs at home.

Rookie Noah Cameron will take the bump for the Royals. He's allowed two runs or fewer through the first 4 2/3 frames in 8 of 10 starts, and the only hiccups came against strong lineups in the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers. Taking down the Pirates figures to be a soft task, as Pittsburgh's active roster struggles with a .279 wOBA (second-worst), 73 wRC+ (worst), and an inflamed 26.6% K% (tied for third-highest) against LHP.

On the other side of this game, Andrew Heaney will take on a Kansas City group that just can't seem to get it going at Kauffman Stadium. They flash a league-worst 75 wRC+ at home. Versus lefties in the split, the Royals show truly putrid marks, including an MLB-worst .253 wOBA, .295 SLG, and 52 wRC+.

Heaney's certainly no ace, but he did toss 6 2/3 scoreless innings his last time out. Left-handed sluggers have been his main issue this campaign, but Kansas City has little to offer in that regard past Vinnie Pasquantino. Plus, getting the under at 4.5 offers us some home run wiggle room.

Marlins at Reds

Marlins Moneyline (+116)

The Miami Marlins have the third-best record (15-7) in MLB since June 13th. They've won 10 of their last 13 contests and the three losses came by a total of just four runs. Can the Fins stay hot in tonight's series opener against the Cincinnati Reds?

Janson Junk will get the ball for Miami. The bulk reliever has started three games this season and has a 3.62 ERA, 3.12 SIERA, and 3.02 xFIP to his name. He's surrendered just one home run through 37 1/3 innings pitched. Past Junk, the Marlins will call on a bullpen that sports a 3.80 xFIP (eighth-best) and 3.52 SIERA (sixth-best) across the past 30 days. All to say, this staff could keep a Reds offense that generates a middling 100 wRC+ at home versus righties at bay.

Brady Singer will take the bump for the Reds. He owns a 4.36 ERA, 4.62 expected ERA, 4.51 xFIP, and 4.48 SIERA through 17 starts. Miami's active roster sports a .320 wOBA on the road versus righties, which ranks seventh in the split. Lefties Xavier Edwards and Kyle Stowers -- who rank 2nd and 3rd on the team in WAR, respectively -- will each draw a plus matchup against the right-handed Singer.

To add, Cincinnati's bullpen struggles with a 4.35 xFIP (sixth-worst) and 4.04 SIERA (tied for fourth-worst).

With that, I think Miami's moneyline is a quality bet at +116 odds.

Dodgers at Brewers

Dodgers Over 4.5 Runs (+112)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are averaging a league-best 5.49 runs per game. The club has scored over 4.5 runs in 56.0% of their contests in 2025. And from June 22nd to July 3rd, LA went 9-1 and scored at least five runs in all but one game.

The last few contests haven't been as fruitful and include a sweep from the Houston Astros in a series where the Dodgers scored just six total runs. Can they get back on track against the Milwaukee Brewers tonight?

A date with Freddy Peralta is hardly inviting, but the Dodgers' offense can be matchup proof. Though Peralta's 2.91 ERA is shiny, a 3.72 expected ERA and 4.02 xFIP suggest he is due for negative regression. He's benefitted from a lucky .244 BABIP -- the seventh-lowest among 70 eligible MLB starters.

LA's active roster sports a .342 wOBA (fourth-best) and 120 wRC+ (fifth-best) versus righties. Considering they've put five-plus runs on the board in 17 of their last 26 games, I am good to target these +112 odds despite the difficult matchup.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.