3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Monday 6/16/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays

Orioles Under 3.5 Runs (+134)

From a value perspective, I can get behind fading the Baltimore Orioles' offense in their matchup against Ryan Pepiot and the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Orioles have scored under 3.5 runs in 51.4% of total games and 57.1% of road games -- both up from the 42.7% implied probability on these +134 odds.

Pepiot is in a groove this season, entering with a 3.31 ERA, 3.94 xFIP, 3.93 SIERA, and 22.3% strikeout rate. The Orioles have been valiant against righties at home, producing a .350 wOBA (third-best in MLB), 131 wRC+ (2nd), and .230 ISO (2nd) in this split at Camden Yards. However, the results have been far different on the road and include a meh .304 wOBA (23rd), 95 wRC+ (23rd), and .138 ISO (19th).

I think we can buy into the O's struggles on the road, especially with a fairly limiting Pepiot on the bump. It doesn't hurt that Tampa Bay's active bullpen sports a 3.41 SIERA (10th-best) and 3.78 xFIP (12th-best).

Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins

Phillies Moneyline (-112)

The Philadelphia Phillies (42-29) and Miami Marlins (28-41) kick off a four-game series this evening, and we can look for the road team to walk away with the win.

Philadelphia will send Mick Abel to the mound. The rookie has given up just four runs and punched out 14 batters through 15 1/3 innings pitched across three starts. Though his 2.35 ERA is not sustainable, he does draw a soft matchup against the Marlins. Miami's active roster shows a 102 wRC+ (21st), .321 wOBA (16th), and .142 ISO (22nd) versus right-handed pitchers.

Sandy Alcantara will toe the rubber for Miami, and he's likely a stronger candidate to get dinged against this Philly offense. Alcantara's 7.14 ERA is due for regression based on a 4.57 xERA. However, a 4.50 xFIP, 4.71 SIERA, and 17.7% strikeout rate doesn't let him off the hook too much. Philadelphia's active roster shows a 106 wRC+ (15th) and .324 wOBA (15th) versus righties.

Once Alcantara's night is done, the Phillies will get a swing at a Miami bullpen that carries a 3.87 SIERA (fourth-worst in MLB) and 4.19 xFIP (fourth-worst). In a game that's being billed as close to a pick 'em, I am happy to back the Phillies.

Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners

Mariners -1.5 (+126)

The Boston Red Sox aren't one to let the good times roll. After sweeping the New York Yankees on Sunday afternoon, Boston pulled off a blockbuster trade that sent Rafael Devers to the San Francisco Giants.

Devers led the team in doubles, home runs, RBIs, and is among the top left-handed hitters in MLB. His absence and more has me on the Seattle Mariners to win by more than one run this evening.

As the Red Sox see their star walk, the Mariners get their start back. Logan Gilbert is slated to make his first start since late April after being activated off the injured list

Gilbert was elite to start the year, producing a 2.37 ERA, 2.28 xERA, 1.72 xFIP, and a mammoth 37.6% strikeout rate through 30 1/3 innings. Following the Devers trade, Boston's active roster now sports a 91 wRC+ (27th) and .308 wOBA (27th) versus northpaws. Our Jim Sannes even recommends the over on Gilbert's strikeout prop.

The Red Sox will send Lucas Giolito to the mound. The up-and-down hurler has generated a 5.45 ERA, 5.88 xERA, 4.28 xFIP, and 17.9% strikeout rate through 39 2/3 innings pitched. Seattle's active roster comes in with a .166 ISO (12th), .329 wOBA (10th), and 118 wRC+ (7th) versus right-handed pitchers. This matchup could result in a lopsided outcome.

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Which bets stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.