3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Friday 6/6/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians

Astros Moneyline (-124)

With Colton Gordon going for the Houston Astros and Logan Allen throwing for the Cleveland Guardians, the Astros have a sizable advantage on the mound, which makes their -124 moneyline appealing.

Gordon has thrown just 19 2/3 MLB innings, but he's been good for a banged-up Astros rotation, pitching to a 3.48 SIERA and 23.0% strikeout rate. While he's showing a 5.25 ERA, his expected ERA is all the way down at 2.66.

Allen, meanwhile, is having a rough go of it in 2025, struggling to a 5.00 SIERA and 17.1% K rate with an inflated 11.3% walk rate. He's been tagged for six earned runs across his last 7 2/3 innings.

Once Allen is out of the game, Cleveland will turn to a taxed bullpen that had to cover four frames last night at the Yankees while Houston's relievers needed to record just six outs yesterday.

Plus, Houston's offense (.313 wOBA) is a notch or two above Cleveland's (.302) this season.

It all adds up to me backing the Astros to win today's series opener.

Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins

Twins -1.5 (+138)

Eric Lauer and Bailey Ober are pitching in his one, and that has me on the Minnesota Twins.

Ober is having an underwhelming season, registering a 4.40 SIERA through 62 frames, but we know he can be much better than that.

Over the past four years, Ober owns a 3.75 SIERA in 471 1/3 innings. I'm willing to trust that larger sample, and there are some positives even in Ober's 2025 numbers, including a 12.4% swinging-strike rate. He should be able to have success versus a Toronto Blue Jays offense that is just 20th in wOBA versus RHP (.312).

Lauer -- who is expected to handle the bulk of the innings -- spent the beginning of this season pitching to a 4.54 xFIP over 24 innings in Triple-A. Since getting called up, he's allowing a 55.9% fly-ball rate in 23 2/3 innings, including a 59.4% fly-ball rate and 40.6% hard-hit rate to right-handed hitters. That should be music to the ears of Byron Buxton, Ryan Jeffers, Royce Lewis and potentially Carlos Correa.

With an edge on the bump and their top bats in a good spot, the Twins can roll.

Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants

Under 3.5 Total Runs in the First 5 Innings (+106)

The probable starters for the final game of the night are Spencer Schwellenbach and Hayden Birdsong, and I am expecting both of them to thrive.

Schwellenbach is following up his outstanding rookie campaign with an even better effort in 2025, producing a 3.18 SIERA, 4.0% walk rate and 13.2% swinging-strike rate so far this season. He's on fire right now, too, with a 2.61 xFIP and 26.4% K rate over his last six starts. A date with a San Francisco Giants offense that ranks only 23rd in wOBA versus RHP (.310) is a great spot for Schwellenbach.

As for Birdsong, he's also dealing this season, sporting a 3.24 SIERA, 24.8% K rate and 12.6% swinging-strike rate. While the Atlanta Braves' offense is a tough matchup -- 12th in wOBA against RHP -- Birdsong has the stuff to keep them under wraps.

Both Schwellenbach (1.08 HR/9) and Birdsong (0.95 HR/9) do a nice job keeping the ball in the yard, too, which is obviously a good thing for this bet, and I think they'll put up some zeros early.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.