2026 Louisiana Derby Betting Odds and Contenders Preview

Key Takeaways:

• The Louisiana Derby is a true stamina test at 1 3/16 miles, and with 100 points on the line, the top two finishers are all but Derby-bound.
• This year’s compact field leans heavily on Fair Grounds form, with Risen Star alumni—especially Chip Honcho—holding a tactical edge in a race lacking early speed.
• Pace makes the race: with no clear burners signed on, expect a forwardly placed runner to control terms and prove tough to reel in late.
• Lightly raced maiden winners add intrigue, but history—and reliability—still favor runners exiting proven prep races over raw upside.
• Value may sit just off the obvious names, with Blacksmith, Chip Honcho, and Emerging Market offering the right mix of trip, pedigree, and progression in a race without a clear standout.

The Fair Grounds spur of the Road to the Kentucky Derby draws to its exciting conclusion on Saturday, February 21, with the $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2). Not only is the purse huge, but the Derby points are as well. The race offers 100-50-25-15-10 points to the top five finishers—meaning the top two finishers are virtually assured a spot in the starting gate come the first Saturday in May, and others may go if they have another good prep or two behind them.

The 1 3/16-mile distance is the longest of any stateside prep, and an excellent test of stamina leading into the 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby. The 2026 edition drew a field of nine including two of the three local prep winners: Gun Runner winner Chip Honcho and Lecomte (G3) winner Golden Tempo. Though Risen Star (G2) winner Paladin does not rejoin the fray, both Chip Honcho and Golden Tempo hit the board in that race, suggesting continuing good form.

Those local stakes winners will square off against Sunland Derby winner Pavlovian, multiple graded-stakes placed Universe, Grade 2-placed Blacksmith, and promising lightly-raced maiden winners like Autobahn, Easterly, and Emerging Market.

Two horses have won both the Louisiana Derby and the Kentucky Derby: Black Gold (1924) and Grindstone (1996). In 2019, longshot Kentucky Derby winner Country House was fourth in the Louisiana Derby before winning the roses. And, in 2022, Epicenter won the Louisiana Derby en route to second-place finishes in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness.

Louisiana Derby 2026 Information

• Race Date: Saturday, March 21, 2026
• Track: Fair Grounds Race Course
• Post Time: 5:42 p.m. Central Daylight Time
• Distance: 1 3/16 miles
• Age/Sex: three-year-olds
• Where to Watch: FanDuel TV
• Where to Bet: FanDuel Racing

Louisiana Derby Odds

These are the entrants for the 2026 Louisiana Derby, including post positions, trainers, jockeys, and official morning-line odds for each horse.

Louisiana Derby Prep Results

The nine horses in the Louisiana Derby come out of seven races. Fittingly, the one race with multiple last-out runners is the local prep, the Risen Star on February 14. Chip Honcho was the gritty runner-up, only half a length behind Paladin. It was well back to third-place Golden Tempo and fourth-place Universe, both of whom also turn up alongside Chip Honcho in the Louisiana Derby field.

Two others come out of Kentucky Derby points races. Pavlovian battled to a nose score in the Sunland Derby on February 15, advancing from California-bred stakes onto the Kentucky Derby trail. Spirit of Royal has to move forward out of a no-threat ninth in the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn on February 6.

The other four entrants all come out of maiden special weight wins. Brad Cox charge Autobahn earned his diploma on February 21 at Gulfstream, stretching out to 1 ⅛ miles for the first time. Easterly also broke his maiden at Gulfstream for Cox, stalking and pouncing to win a 1 1/16-mile race at second asking. Blacksmith, already Grade 2-placed by virtue of a runner-up finish in the Los Alamitos Futurity last year, graduated Feb. 20 in a dirt mile at Santa Anita. Emerging Market is the only debut winner stepping straight up to the Louisiana Derby; he won in fast fashion on February 7 in a one-mile, 40-yard race at Tampa Bay Downs.

Louisiana Derby Contenders

This is the field for the 2026 Louisiana Derby, organized by post position:

1. Pavlovian: With nine starts, he is the most seasoned horse in the field. All but two of those races came against California-breds, but he stepped up big on February 15, pressing the pace and getting up by a nose over Express Kid in the Sunland Derby. He does have some tactical versatility, but the field gets much deeper here – the Sunland Derby was the best race of his life, and he is going to have to prove it was not a fluke.
2. Autobahn: He needed a few starts to come into himself, but the light came on last month when he stretched out to two turns – 1 ⅛ miles – at Gulfstream on February 21. The son of Nyquist has some upside stretching out even farther for this, but none of his races have come back particularly fast compared to what his rivals have run so far, so this second-stringer from the Brad Cox barn is going to have to take a major step forward to make an impact in this spot.
3. Chip Honcho: This Steve Asmussen trainee has been a major factor on the New Orleans spur of the Kentucky Derby trail. He won the Gun Runner, was beaten less than two lengths in the Lecomte, and was the only horse in the same ZIP code as Paladin in the Risen Star last out. His tactical speed and his affinity for the Fair Grounds dirt are both major points in his favor – and without a lot of speed in this race, expect Luis Saez to give him another nice, aggressive ride.
4. Universe: He graduated on debut at Saratoga in a seven-furlong sprint, but has yet to find the winners’ circle since. He nabbed a few graded-stakes placings at two, but hasn’t been close in a pair of points races at age three. Maybe a switch back to McPeek’s “A” rider Brian Hernandez could help – Universe was second in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) in his only race with Hernandez – but a class drop might be the best move of all.
5. Golden Tempo: This Cherie DeVaux trainee has just three starts. He has settled well off the pace in all three of his starts, getting up to win both his debut and the Lecomte before falling well short when third in the Risen Star. DeVaux adds blinkers, perhaps to try to give him a little more speed – but she’s only an 11% winner first-time blinkers, and Golden Tempo is unlikely to get enough pace in front of him to give him the setup unless those blinkers do give him a surprising amount of pace.
6. Spirit of Royal: It took him six starts to graduate, and he went straight to the Derby trail after that maiden-breaker. That first step onto the trail wasn’t great – he found no rally in the Southwest, finishing ninth. He tries again, but he is going to have to find a lot, especially since there doesn’t look like a lot of pace ready to unfold in front of him, and even though he has shown speed in a few past races, all his races with Francisco Arrieta in the irons have shown him attempting to come from well off the pace.
7. Blacksmith: This Bob Baffert charge finally graduated February 20 in his fifth lifetime start, and now steps back onto the Kentucky Derby trail. That was his first start with Florent Geroux in the irons, and now Geroux accompanies him to Fair Grounds – a track where Geroux has won many huge races over the years. The worry about getting overbet for Baffert is real, but the tactical speed and the distance pedigree are appealing, and he shapes as a major contender now that he has finally put things together.
8. Easterly: The top-stringer of the Brad Cox pair, he ran a decent debut and then got off the mark in his first two-turn outing. He should be able to show tactical speed from an outside gate, and he has a strong distance pedigree, meaning he has more upside at the 1 3/16-mile trip than most. He’ll have to step up from a speed perspective, but after a modest rise between his first two starts, there’s upside for him to take another step forward in his third lifetime start. Whether that will be enough is a question, but it’s worth taking a shot given his form and his pedigree.
9. Emerging Market: This Chad Brown trainee dazzled on debut, rallying, battling, and winning by three-quarters of a length in fast fashion at Tampa Bay Downs last month. Flavien Prat keeps the faith, Chad Brown is one of the best long-distance trainers in the game, and there’s enough distance pedigree to suggest he’ll take to the distance. The question is experience – he has just the one race, and this is quite late in the Kentucky Derby trail – but Chad Brown has made noise on the Kentucky Derby trail with lightly-raced horses before, so he knows what he’s doing.

Louisiana Derby Past Winners Past Performances

The Risen Star is king of the prep races for the Louisiana Derby. In the last ten years, five of the winners of the Louisiana Derby came out of the second-to-last of Fair Grounds’ Kentucky Derby prep races. All ran well, though not all won. Gun Runner (2016), Girvin (2017), and Epicenter (2022) took top honors, whereas Noble Indy (2018) and Catching Freedom (2024) ran third.

It is worth noting that no horse in the last ten years has come straight from the Lecomte, or even a Fair Grounds race on Lecomte day, to win the Louisiana Derby. Though By My Standards (2019) came from a maiden race at Fair Grounds to win this race, that maiden win came on the Risen Star undercard.

Four of the last ten winners of the Louisiana Derby did not last run at Fair Grounds. Three of them came out of Kentucky Derby points races: Wells Bayou (2020) had finished second in the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn, Hot Rod Charlie (2021) was third in the Robert B. Lewis, and Tiztastic (2025) was fifth in the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn. Kingsbarns (2023) came out of an allowance win at Tampa Bay Downs about a month and a half before the Louisiana Derby.

Louisiana Derby: 3 Best Bets

These are the three best bets in the 2026 Louisiana Derby:

1. Blacksmith (6-1)

Florent Geroux may have moved tack from Fair Grounds to Santa Anita this winter, but he rode successfully at the Louisiana track for years, including in the biggest races. Though it took Bob Baffert a while to forge Blacksmith into winning shape – he was still a maiden when he was second in the Los Alamitos Futurity last year – he earned his diploma last month, and when Baffert trainees figure it out in maiden company, watch out. They tend to stay good.

In terms of pace, he has just the right running style for this race, fast and tactical enough to stalk West Coast speed. And, being by Liam’s Map out of a Curlin mare, there’s plenty in his pedigree to suggest that he should try this longer distance. Especially if the money stays with the Fair Grounds locals – or with the even more ballyhooed maiden winner Emerging Market – it’ll be worth betting that this will be Blacksmith’s coming-out party.

2. Chip Honcho (3-1)

The Risen Star, historically speaking, is a fruitful place to look for Louisiana Derby winners. And, Chip Honcho is not only the best of that group but also the one most likely to get the right trip. Chip Honcho has been consistent down the Louisiana spur of the Derby trail, winning the Gun Runner and not being beaten much in either the Lecomte or the Risen Star.

And, the Louisiana Derby could not have drawn better for him. Though there are nine horses, there is a dearth of early pace. Though Chip Honcho doesn’t need to be on the front end to win, he has plenty of speed to take the initiative, and aggressive rider Luis Saez keeps the mount from last out. Especially with stamina on the top and bottom of his pedigree, if Saez can put him on the front and rate out his speed, he should have plenty left to be tough in the lane.

3. Emerging Market (6-1)

Emerging Market cedes experience to all of his foes – he won his debut at Tampa Bay Downs last month, and Chad Brown sees fit to send him straight into a 100-point Kentucky Derby prep. He settled midpack and rallied strongly to win by three-quarters of a length, showing impressive late pace in that effort. Worth noting is that he didn’t have a very fast pace in front of him, and he still managed to battle for the win – that’s how things are likely to unfold this time, showing he has already been able to work out the kind of trip he would need, assuming he shows the same running style.

His connections are also ones you can trust in big route races: trainer Chad Brown and Flavien Prat hardly need introduction, nowadays. Brown shines with last-out maiden winners and knows how to train for stamina, and Prat has been the top big-race jockey of the last few years. Prat had the reins for Emerging Market’s maiden score in Tampa, too, meaning there’s rapport and continuity.

Louisiana Derby Undercard

The Louisiana Derby is the 12th of 14 races on Saturday’s card at Fair Grounds Race Course, and the last of eight stakes scheduled for the day. Kentucky Oaks-bound fillies take center stage in the $400,000 Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), handicap males contest the New Orleans Classic (G2), and older turf horses take the spotlight in the Muniz Memorial Classic (G2).

Ungraded stakes include the $150,000 Tom Benson Memorial for older turf fillies and mares, as well as a pair of undercard events for Louisiana-bred horses. With big fields and top-class horses all day long, it is a perfect time to watch FanDuel TV all day long and place your bets with FanDuel!

Fair Grounds History

The first races at what was then the Louisiana Race Course were organized by Bernard de Marigny and others in 1839 and 1839. It was reopened as Union Race Course in 1852, but closed after five years because the nearby Metairie Course proved more popular at the time. It was renamed yet again in 1859 as the Creole Race Course, then was first given the name Fair Grounds in 1963. It continued to host horse racing during the Civil War.

That was not the end of the closing and opening of the course, though. It closed again after the Civil War when Metairie reopened. Still, some members of the Metairie Jockey Club broke away, re-formed the Louisiana Jockey Club, and restarted racing at Fair Grounds in 1872.

Racing was banned in New Orleans in 1908, though it returned in 1915. Though the track was in jeopardy after being sold to developers in 1940, racing-minded investors saved the track from certain destruction in 1941 and ensured horse racing would continue after World War II.

A stable period followed, and in 1981, the turf course was laid, and then the facility was sold in 1990. Following a devastating fire, a new grandstand had to be built in 1994 at a cost of $27 million, a grand reopening taking place on Thanksgiving Day 1997.

Although further damaged by Hurricane Katrina, another Thanksgiving Day reopening occurred in 2006, and since then, the track has run on an even keel and remains popular with traditional racegoers.

Louisiana Derby FAQ

Q: When is the Louisiana Derby?

A: The 2026 Louisiana Derby happens Saturday, March 22, at 5:42 p.m. Central Daylight Time. It is the 12th of 14 races on the card at Fair Grounds.

Q: Where is the Louisiana Derby?

A: It takes place at Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans, Louisiana.

Q: Which trainer has the most wins in the Louisiana Derby?

A: Todd Pletcher and Steve Asmussen lead all trainers with five wins. Pletcher, whose most recent victory in the Louisiana Derby came in 2023 with Kingsbarns, does not have an entrant this year. Asmussen, who tied Pletcher when Tiztastic won in 2025, can take the lead alone if Chip Honcho wins.

Q: Who is the favorite for the 2026 Louisiana Derby?

A: Chip Honcho is the 3-1 morning-line favorite and is likely to hold as the chalk: he has been a consistent presence on the Louisiana spur of the Kentucky Derby trail, with a win in the Gun Runner and strong efforts in both the Lecomte and the Risen Star. The 7-2 morning-line second choice is Golden Tempo, the Lecomte winner, though he is unlikely to overtake Chip Honcho on the board, given Chip Honcho’s significantly better effort in the Risen Star. Perhaps more likely to threaten Chip Honcho at the top of the tote would be one of the buzzy maiden winners like Emerging Market (6-1) for Chad Brown or Blacksmith (6-1) for Bob Baffert.

Q: Who is the best Louisiana Derby jockey?

A: The now-retired jockey Pat Day rode the winner five times. Among jockeys with a horse in the 2026 edition of the race, Florent Geroux and Flavien Prat are tied with two wins each, the most in the field. Geroux can win his third with Blacksmith; Prat can hit three with Emerging Market.

Q: Who won the 2025 Louisiana Derby?

A: Tiztastic won the 2025 Louisiana Derby for trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Joel Rosario. Rosario does not have a call in the 2026 edition, but Asmussen brings Chip Honcho with Luis Saez in the irons.

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