2024 NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament: Elite Eight Betting Picks (Monday)

Zack Bussiere
Zack Bussiere@ZackBussiere
2024 NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament: Elite Eight Betting Picks (Monday)

The 2024 NCAA Women's Tournament continues on into the new week with the final day of the Elite Eight.

Here are some of the best bets to consider -- based on the NCAA women's basketball betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook -- for Monday's two Elite Eight matchups.

Iowa vs. LSU Best Bet

Over 168.5 (-110)

Get your popcorn ready. Monday’s clash between Iowa and LSU, a rematch of last season’s NCAA Championship game which LSU won 102-85, is set up to be the game of the tournament thus far.

Iowa ranks second in both TheAnalyst's TRACR rating and Sports-Reference's adjusted net rating. LSU ranks fifth in both. The strength of both sides is their offense. Iowa ranks second in offensive rating, only slightly behind South Carolina, while LSU ranks seventh. Defensively, both teams are solid, but not elite -- Iowa ranks 22nd in defensive rating while LSU ranks 14th.

Led by Caitlin Clark, Iowa’s offense has posted some impressive numbers this season. They take the sixth-most threes per game (29.3) and make the most threes per game (11.0), shooting 37.7% from behind the arc (ninth-best). When they choose to attack the basket, they are also exceptional considering their two-point field goal percentage (60.0) ranks first. Assists? Check. Their 21.4 assists per game ranks first. Rebounds? Check. Their 30.8 defensive rebounds per game rank seventh.

Led by Angel Reese, LSU’s offense generates points in a different way. They rank outside the top 300 in both three-point attempts per game (13.0) and three-point field goals per game (4.3) but are elite from inside the arc. They rank third in two-point attempts per game (52.9) and second in two-point field goals made per game (26.4). Their plan to attack the basket leads into the other pillar of their offense -- free throws. LSU ranks first in both free throw attempts per game (27.3) and free throws per game (20.4). On average, their points from the line account for 23.7% of their total points each game.

Neither team is well-positioned to defend what the other excels at. Iowa allows 40.2 two-point field goal attempts per game (223rd),18.3 two-point field goals per game (239th), and 14.8 free throws per game (119th). LSU allows 21.9 three-point field goals per game (306th).

A path is there for both these sides’ strengths to shine, which leads me to preferring the over.

USC vs. UConn Best Bet

UConn -3.5 (-105)

UConn enters this game as the higher seed, but TRACR rating and Sports-Reference's adjusted net rating suggests that they are a deserving favorite.

UConn’s season got off to, by their own lofty standards, a very slow start with three losses in their first seven games. Since then, they are 28-2 with their only two defeats coming against Notre Dame and South Carolina.

UConn is one of only two teams that rank inside the top five in both offensive rating (fourth) and defensive rating (second) this season. The other is South Carolina, who ranks first in both. When healthy, they are a complete team.

Offensively, the Huskies are a highly efficient team. They make the sixth-most field goals per game (30.7) and their field goal percentage (49.8) ranks third. They don’t take many threes -- their 19.7 3-point field goal attempts per game ranks 158th -- but they make the ones they do take. Their three-point field goal percentage (36.2) ranks 22nd. Combine that with their 19.6 assists per game, which ranks fourth, and you get a team that is difficult to defend.

The one thing UConn’s five losses all have in common is that they came against teams with elite defenses. NC State (3rd), UCLA (10th), Texas (8th), Notre Dame (6th), and South Carolina (1st) all rank inside the top 10 in defensive rating this season.

USC is a great team, but they fall slightly short of being an elite side on either end of the court. They rank 15th in both offensive rating and defensive rating. They rank 11th overall in both TRACR and Sports-Reference's adjusted net rating.

With JuJu Watkins and Paige Bueckers in action, both teams feature elite superstars. USC has a height advantage, but I believe UConn’s disruptive defense will be the difference. The Huskies rank 37th in steals per game (10.1) and teams facing them shoot just 35.5% from the field, ninth-lowest. They also rank 14th in free throws allowed per game (12.0). As Duke found out on Saturday, points don’t come easy against this UConn team.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.