2023 NFL Power Rankings: Conference Championships

With the Divisional Round in the books, we are officially down to the final four in the chase for Super Bowl LVIII.

The Baltimore Ravens reminded everyone why they were the top seed in the AFC, dismantling the Houston Texans, 34-10, with a strong second half performance.

The San Francisco 49ers earned a 24-21 victory, but their result was less convincing. The Green Bay Packers led entering the fourth quarter, but a missed field goal sealed their elimination.

The Detroit Lions kept the good times going with a 31-23 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa Bay had the game tied entering the fourth quarter, but the Lions’ offense pulled out the victory with touchdowns on consecutive drives.

The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills capped off the weekend by writing another chapter in their growing rivalry. Unfortunately for Buffalo, the story remained the same. The Chiefs 27-24 win was the first road playoff victory of Patrick Mahomes’ career.

This week, we are taking a look at the four remaining playoff teams and where they sit in our NFL Power Rankings, which come via numberFire's nERD metric.

The team with the best Super Bowl odds, per numberFire's model, heading into the Divisional Round? The 49ers (42.3%).

The team with the second-best Super Bowl odds? The Ravens (36.7%).

Here's where things stand heading into the Conference Championships.

NFL Power Rankings for the Conference Championships

The Final Four

The good news for the Lions is they made the NFC Championship for the second time in team history. The bad news for Detroit is that, with just four teams remaining, they are now the lowest-ranked team, per numberFire, left in the postseason.

Looking at our power rankings, the Lions’ offense, which ranks fourth, belongs in the NFC Championship. They are elite in both phases with a passing game that ranks second and a run game that ranks fifth. The Lions and 49ers are the only remaining teams that rank inside the top five in both the pass and run game –- supporting the 50.5-point total in their upcoming clash.

On the other side of the ball, the Lions are an outlier. Their defense ranks 27th, making them the only remaining team without a top 10 defense. Detroit’s run defense, which ranks eighth, is solid. Their weakness is their pass defense, which ranks 30th behind only the Arizona Cardinals and Washington Commanders.

For the first time this postseason, the Lions are not playing at home and are not favored. They are currently 6.5-point underdogs against the 49ers. To pull off the upset, the Lions' defense will need to step up against the 49ers’ top-ranked offense. According to numberFire, the Lions’ odds of winning the Super Bowl sit at 8.5% -- below their implied odds (+700, 12.5%) according the Super Bowl odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Next up is the Chiefs, who sit in sixth overall. Against a depleted Buffalo defense, the Chiefs’ offense rose to the occasion. They found success through the air and on the ground, routinely moving the ball down the field with ease. To advance to another Super Bowl, the Chiefs needs their offense to continue to improve; the Ravens top-ranked defense is a big step up from the Bills unit they faced on Sunday.

Of the remaining teams, the Chiefs have the worst-ranked offense, per numberFire. Their passing game ranks 11th and their running game ranks 9th for an overall ranking of 9th. They are stronger on the other side of the ball with a defense that ranks fourth overall (second among remaining teams).

Kansas City will have the experience edge in their clash with Baltimore, but that is it. The Chiefs will be on the road, and they rank lower than Baltimore on both offense and defense. While both teams’ offenses are capable of explosive performances, both teams’ success this season has come thanks to outstanding defense.

As it stands, the Chiefs are 3.5-point underdogs this weekend. Per numberFire, Kansas City’s odds of winning the Super Bowl sit at 12.5% -- well below their implied FanDuel odds (+350, 22.2%).

The 49ers moved down one spot to second overall following their win over the Packers on Saturday. While the result is all that matters this time of year, the victory was anything but reassuring for San Francisco.

The 49ers looked like the lesser team for at least half of the game and needed a fourth-quarter comeback -- and a missed field goal -- to earn the win in regulation. Baltimore’s win inspired confidence; San Francisco’s win provided more questions than answers.

The good news for the 49ers is they have the easier matchup this weekend, facing a Detroit side whose weakness, their defense, provides San Francisco with a pristine opportunity for a bounce-back performance. The 49ers’ passing game ranks first, and their running game ranks third. That's an overall ranking of first. While there is some uncertainty after this weekend’s performance against the Packers, San Francisco’s offense remains a huge advantage for them heading into the NFC Championship.

The 49ers’ defense has a much more difficult task on their hands. The 49ers rank 5th against the pass and 17th against the run, so the Lions elite offense will test both units on Sunday.

It all adds up to San Francisco being favored by 6.5 points in a projected high-scoring contest. Primarily due to their easier matchup on Sunday, numberFire believes the 49ers have the best odds of winning the Super Bowl (42.3%). That mark sits above their implied odds (+145, 40.8%) at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Coming off their impressive second-half performance against Houston, the Ravens moved up one spot and now sit on top of our power rankings. Other than a somewhat sluggish start on offense, Baltimore was perfect on Saturday.

On offense, a Lamar Jackson masterclass resulted in two passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns. The Ravens finished with 229 rushing yards against a Texans run defense ranked second in numberFire’s rankings. Baltimore’s elite defense continued to do what they have done all season and held the Texans’ offense to just three total points. Houston's only touchdown came on a punt return.

The Ravens’ passing game now ranks 10th and their running game ranks 2nd for an overall ranking of 6th. Their pass defense ranks first, and their run defense ranks ninth for an overall ranking of first.

In the passing game, the Chiefs’ defense will provide a difficult challenge for Baltimore this weekend. On the ground, the Ravens hold a large advantage with their second ranked rushing attack facing a Chiefs rush D that ranks 26th. Outside of the experience edge Mahomes has on Jackson in AFC Championships, this contest sets up well for Baltimore. If they avoid falling behind and being forced into obvious passing situations, they can exploit the weakness of the Chiefs’ defense.

Baltimore is currently listed as 3.5-point favorites to win the AFC Championship. According to numberFire, their odds of winning the Super Bowl sit at 36.7% -- also above their implied odds (+210, 32.3%) at FanDuel.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.