2 Best WNBA Bets and Player Props for Dream at Mercury on Wednesday 7/23/25

Even within a single WNBA game, we've got countless betting options.

You can ride with traditional markets such as spreads or totals or bet on which players will erupt via the player-prop markets.

Which bets stand out for tonight's matchup between the Atlanta Dream and Phoenix Mercury?

Let's run through the top options in FanDuel Sportsbook's WNBA betting odds, leaning on advanced stats from the WNBA to help us find an edge in the market.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes via the official WNBA player news wire.

WNBA Picks and Props for Dream at Mercury

Dream +7.5 (-106)

For the fourth consecutive game, the Dream will be without Rhyne Howard (knee), who averages 16.5 points per game (PPG) and a league-high 9.7 three-point attempts per game. As a team, Atlanta launches the third-most three-point attempts per game, and Phoenix's defense is middle of the road by allowing the seventh-most three-point shots per contest.

Howard being absent is a hit to the three-point attack, but the Dream still have Allisha Gray (18.6 PPG) posting 6.3 three-point shots per game while shooting 38.6% from beyond the arc. In three games without Howard, Atlanta is still recording 26.3 three-point attempts per contest (26.3). For reference, the Minnesota Lynx shoot the fifth-most triples per game at 26.7.

This is still a three-point attack that can take advantage of a meh Mercury perimeter defense. The same can not be said about the Dream's three-point defense, for it allows the fewest three-point shots per contest. This should be handy with Phoenix hoisting the second-most three-point shots per game.

Along with a potential advantage in the three-point category, Atlanta has a good shot of controlling the possession battle by ranking fourth in rebounding percentage compared to the Mercury sitting at eighth. Limiting Phoenix's second-chance points is something I'm circling, as Phoenix is ninth in offensive rebounding percentage while the Dream lead the league in defensive rebounding rate.

A win for the Mercury seems likely (-325 moneyline), but the 7.5-point spread simply feels too high. Atlanta has enough advantages to cover, and DRatings' game projections have the Dream losing by only 4.5 points.

Allisha Gray Over 16.5 Points (-110)

Gray is totaling 18.6 PPG on the season, and with Howard out of the lineup, tonight's 16.5-point prop is looking very enticing. However, she was on a slump prior to All-Star weekend by making only 4 of 21 three-point attempts (19.0%) over the final three games before the break. However, she snapped out of the slump by draining 5 of 11 triples (45.5%) in the Dream's first game back on Tuesday.

If Gray is back to being an efficient scorer, this is a clear take when Howard isn't playing. Without surprise, this has led to increased usage as Gray is launching 8.0 three-point shots per game over the last four compared to 6.3 on the season. We already mentioned Phoenix's perimeter defense has been mediocre; this goes for opponent efficient, too, sitting at 33.2% (sixth-highest).

The Mercury are listed as large favorites in large part thanks to the return of Satou Sabally (ankle) and Kahleah Copper (hamstring). As the squad's two leading scorers, each piece will add plenty on the offensive end. However, Copper's return could be another advantage for Gray thanks to her weak 103.6 defensive rating.

A favorable one-on-one matchup against a meh perimeter defense paired with increased usage likely coming Gray's way sounds like a favorable bet all around. RotoWire has Gray totaling 17.3 points and 2.4 made triples.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.