2 Best NBA Finals Bets and Predictions for Game 4 Between the Thunder and Pacers

The Indiana Pacers would like a word with the "Oklahoma City Thunder in 5" soothsayers.

OKC's chance to complete a gentleman's sweep is firmly dead now that Indiana has claimed a 2-1 series lead. Even still, the Pacers remain underdogs to win the NBA Finals (+190), and the market is anticipating a Thunder bounce back effort in Game 4.

Which bets stand out tonight for Game 4? Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA betting odds and see where we can find value.

Thunder at Pacers NBA Finals Game 4 Betting Picks

1st Quarter Spread: Thunder -2.5 (+100)

If games were decided in the opening period, the Thunder would be well on their way to the franchise's first title since relocating to Oklahoma City.

OKC has won the first quarter by 6, 8, and 9 points this series. We can look for a similar outcome on Friday.

The Thunder held a +17.1 first-quarter net rating in the regular season, which was the highest for any team in a single period by a significant margin. They've kept it up this postseason, holding a +17.0 net rating in the first compared to +11.4, +9.4, and +2.7 ratings in the ensuing quarters. OKC touts a monstrous +27.0 first-quarter net rating these Finals -- a far cry from an atrocious -42.9 fourth-quarter net rating.

OKC's longstanding success at the start of games is no fluke. There are a few different reasons why we can expect the same in Game 4.

For one, this team typically responds after a loss. They are 4-1 in the first in games that followed a defeat this postseason, and they won those periods by an average of 11.5 points and a minimum of six points.

Late-game fatigue has been a huge issue for the Thunder in this series, and it's no wonder why. Chet Holmgren averaged 27.4 minutes in the regular season and has been used to playing south of 30 minutes throughout his two-year NBA career. Asking him to perform at a high level at minute 35 in an NBA Finals game is irrational.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander hasn't exactly looked like the league's best down the stretch, either. OKC logged just 66 clutch minutes in the regular season -- the lowest since the NBA started keeping track in 1996. That coupled with a lack of extended postseason experience is coming back to bite them in the Finals. But in the first quarter? They've more or less been the same 'ole Thunder.

Backing OKC in the first quarter alone is especially intriguing, as it doesn't rule out a late-game Pacers push.

Over 225.5 Points (-112)

Following a 223.0-point outcome on Wednesday, the market has handed out this series' lowest over/under for Game 4.

Game 1 (230.5), 2 (227.5), and 3 (228.0) each had a higher over/under than this 225.5-point total, and I'm good to buy the dip.

The Thunder are averaging just 113.3 points in the Finals after netting 117.4 points per playoff game heading into this series. That's even with facing a fellow fast-paced team in the Pacers. It's safe to say this offense has some major untapped potential, and their shooters proved they can knock 'em down away from their home court after going 10 for 22 from beyond the arc in Game 3.

A part of me is waiting for what was once a typical 120-plus point outburst from OKC, and now doesn't seem like a bad time to strike given the market is low and the Thunder are in need of a statement effort at risk of going down 3-1.

Indiana's offense, meanwhile, could be due for positive shooting regression after going just 9 for 27 (33.3%) from distance on Wednesday. They led all playoff teams with a 40.1% three-point percentage heading into that one.

The Pacers have shot below the league's playoff-average effective field goal percentage (eFG%) in only four out of 19 playoff games. In fact, every team that advanced past the second round churned out a 45.6% eFG% or worse in at least three games, while the Pacers have yet to shoot below a 47.3% eFG% in a game this postseason. Even the bad offensive nights aren't that bad for Indiana. Couple that with a strong pace, and it's hard to imagine the Pacers serving as the foil as this total is concerned even if the Thunder manage to bounce back.

You can also check out our latest 2025 NBA Playoffs printable bracket, which includes the seeding and matchups for each conference.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.