2 Best MLB NRFI Bets on Wednesday 7/23/25

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Betting Picks for Today

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-115)

We get a pair of potent offenses going toe to toe in this one, but quality pitching should win the day.

Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Chris Bassitt has converted a NRFI in 14 of 20 starts, and that success is supported by an excellent 3.22 xFIP, 26.7% strikeout rate, and 4.4% walk rate the first time through the order. Additionally, he's suppressed home runs in same-handed matchups (0.67 HR/9) behind a 23.9% strikeout rate and 51.9% ground-ball rate, which will help him keep the always dangerous Aaron Judge from ruining things with one swing.

Lefty Max Fried will take the mound for the New York Yankees, and he hasn't allowed an earned run in 16 of his 20 first innings. As always, Fried's strikeout rate isn't elite (23.1%), but everything else checks out with a 5.5% walk rate (89th percentile), 51.8% ground-ball rate (88th percentile), 6.7% barrel rate (74th percentile), and 37.7% hard-hit rate (73rd percentile).

While Toronto's offense has improved over the course of the season, they're still only 16th in YRFI rate (27.7%). Although the righty-heavy Blue Jays are a tough matchup for left-handers, Fried typically doesn't miss a beat, owning a 3.32 xFIP and 52.6% ground-ball rate versus righties.

A recent blister issue is a concern for Fried, but he's now had 10 days of rest in between starts, giving him extra time to heal up for tonight's game.

Athletics at Texas Rangers

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-115)

A matchup between southpaws JP Sears and Patrick Corbin might look like an easy pass for a NRFI, but these two have excelled in the first inning all season.

Corbin continues to perform better than expected for the Texas Rangers, and if the campaign ended today, he would finish with his first sub-4.00 ERA since 2019. The main improvement has been reducing loud contact, as his 38.2% hard-hit rate (71st percentile) is significantly better than last year's 46.7% (3rd percentile). His 4.44 xERA still might not be amazing, but we'll gladly take that over what he put up the past five years (5.10, 5.62, 6.41, 6.16, and 5.53).

However, for our purposes, the most important part is that Corbin has allowed two earned runs in the first inning all season, giving him a NRFI in 16 of 18 starts. He's even managed a first-inning 25.4% K rate, too. All this should give us faith in him against an Athletics team that has a far lower YRFI rate on the road (26.9%) compared to playing at home in their hitter-friendly park (35.3%).

Sears has been rocked for a 5.13 ERA this season, but he carries a much more respectable 4.02 xERA. Further, his strikeout rate jumps to 25.6% the first time through the order and to 27.4% in the first inning, both of which are leaps and bounds above his overall mark (19.4%). This has led to him logging a scoreless opening inning in 19 of 20 outings.

The matchup checks out for Sears, as well. The Rangers are tied for 17th in overall YRFI rate (27.5%), and that drops to an abysmal 18.0% at home. Their active roster is also last in wRC+ (71) versus LHP.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.