2 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Thursday 6/26/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals

Rays Moneyline (-122)

I like the Tampa Bay Rays' offense to have success against Michael Lorenzen, and I think Shane Baz can keep the Kansas City Royals' offense under wraps. That puts me on Tampa Bay's moneyline.

Lorenzen has pitched to a 4.41 SIERA and 19.3% strikeout rate this year. He's got a dinger issue, permitting 1.53 jacks per nine innings. He's been even worse at home, posting a 4.89 xFIP in the split. Jonathan Aranda, Brandon Lowe and company should be able to push a few runs across against him.

As for Baz, he's the owner of a 4.16 SIERA and 21.9% K rate. His strikeout rate has climbed a bit of late as he's recorded a 23.7% K rate over four June starts. Prior to allowing five earned runs to the Detroit Tigers in his most recent start, Baz had surrendered just 10 total earned runs over his last 28 1/3 innings. The Royals are 28th in wOBA over the past 30 days (.292), so this is a pretty soft matchup for Baz.

Once the two starters are out of the game, the Rays' pitching edge only increases as Tampa is fifth in bullpen xFIP (3.81) while KC is 15th (4.03).

Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants

Giants -1.5 (+120)

The San Francisco Giants are turning to Hayden Birdsong on the bump, and that's a big reason why I like them to win by multiple runs today versus the Miami Marlins.

Birdsong -- who held Miami to one earned run in 5 1/3 innings on June 1st -- was pretty darn good last year as a rookie (4.28 SIERA and 27.9% K rate), and he's following that up with a quality sophomore campaign as he sports a 3.76 SIERA and 23.9% strikeout rate. His swinging-strike rate this year (11.8%) is actually up a bit from where it was in 2024 (11.5%), so he's likely due for some positive regression in the K department.

Miami's offense has shown some life recently, but they're still only 19th in wOBA over the last 30 days (.309). They're also just 20th in wOBA versus RHP for the season (.313).

San Fran also has a big edge in the bullpen. The Giants' relievers sit eighth in xFIP (3.85) while the Marlins' bullpen ranks 26th (4.39).

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Which bets stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.