2 Best MLB Bets and Player Props for Rays at Tigers on Monday 7/7/25

Even within a single MLB game, you've got countless betting markets to choose from.

Which ones stand out today as the Tampa Bay Rays take on the Detroit Tigers?

We're going to run through my favorites in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can also check out FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections if you want a glimpse at projected strikeouts, home runs, and more.

Now, let's dig into the best bets for this game.

Betting Picks for Rays at Tigers

Tigers Over 3.5 Runs (-140)

The Tigers have yet to announce their starter for tonight's matchup, keeping our options somewhat limited. Tampa Bay will put Shane Baz on the mound, drawing our attention to Detroit's batting order. Will the Tigers produce solid run production?

Baz carries a 4.33 ERA, but that's down to 3.38 over her previous six starts. This checks out with his advanced numbers, including a 3.80 xERA, 3.84 SIERA, and 3.79 xFIP.

Will this positive regression keep up against one of MLB's best batting orders, though? The Tigers total the fifth-most runs per game (5.01) and have the sixth-highest wOBA (.327). Despite impressive run production from Detroit, its run total is set at only 3.5 for Monday. We have an angle for the over.

Pitch usage against Baz is a favorable matchup for the Tigers, as well. His three most-used pitches are a four-seam fastball (45.5%), knuckle curve (29.3%), and changeup (12.3%). Detroit has the 12th-fewest runs above average against knuckle curves but rank 5th and 1st against four-seam fastballs and changeups.

Furthermore, Baz has stumbled against sluggers by ranking in the 21st percentile of barrel rate allowed and 41st percentile of hard-hit percentage ceded. He's given up 1.47 home runs per nine innings, and this has continued even with his improving ERA by allowing four dingers over his previous six outings. The Tigers have the power to take advantage of the flaw, ranking sixth in SLG and eighth in isolated power and home run rate.

Riley Greene to Record 2+ Total Bases (+115)

Since we're backing Detroit's run production, we should expect some of the Tigers' batters to thrive in player props. Who is shaping up to be the best bet?

Winds are blowing out to right field, turning our attention to left-handed hitters. Riley Greene leads Detroit with 22 home runs paired with a .539 SLG on the season. He enjoyed a blistering hot streak in June by batting .360, but Greene is hitting only .136 over six games in July. However, he's still managed to hit three homers during his rough stretch to kick off July.

We mentioned Baz's struggles against sluggers, and Greene ranks in the 97th percentile of barrel rate, 75th percentile of hard-hit percentage, and 91st percentile of bat speed. The Tigers' outfielder is also hitting .311 against right-handed hurlers compared to .225 when facing lefties. Greene is carrying decent marks against Baz's three most-used pitches, too, hitting .245 against four-seam fastballs, .250 when facing knuckle curves, and .313 against changeups.

Our MLB DFS projections have Greene totaling 2.25 total bases, which has a 65.7% implied probability for at least two bases (or -192 odds). Carrying the third-highest home run projection of the day (0.32) is a big boost to his bases. While Greene to hit a home run (+390) is enticing, we can still get exposure to his slugging by taking two or more bases (+115).

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Which bets stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.